Possible dates of occurrence of major and great earthquakes worldwide.
Copyright © 2011 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
http://predictingquakes.blogspot.com/
Author’s note: When you are accessing the URL http://predictingquakes.blogspot.com/ please click on the blackened/blank but bordered figures/tables and if necessary, expand the same to view them.
Latest News
4th November 2009
A strong earthquake occurred in Japan on 30th October 2009:
6.8 2009/10/30 07:03:40 29.192 129.877 35.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Here also the location was precisely predicted by the mean of historical monthly peak magnitude quakes in the 120-140 longitude band(Take the mean of quakes in the 120-140 longitude band for the 30-50 and 0-30 (items 4 and 5) latitude bands in Table PMQHMM7308:
As shown by the Chi-square distribution for the expected and observed values, the historical mean is identical to the observed mean,p=87.3 percent(one tailed probability).
In a business as usual mindset the past becomes the future!
25th October 2009
A major earthquake on the 24th of October 2009:
Looking at the historical mean for the monthly peak magnitude earthquakes 1973-2008 in Table PMQHMM7308 for the longitude band 120 to 140 in latitude band 0 to -30 the data is
Number of peak magnitude earthquakes: 27;
Mean Latitude: -4.96; Mean Longitude: 129.6;Mean Magnitude: 7.675 MM;
Mean Depth: 80.9 km(28km for 23 earthquakes,308 km for 4 earthquakes).
The lesson that this prediction again and again is staring the specialists who are ignoring my work which is presumably peerless(why don't you review this significant work(!), if you had the guts to be good in thought, word and deed??) is that the past becomes the future in a business as usual way of life. The location and other data like brightness and time of detection of fires, read hotspots between 23rd to 25th October 2009 by the Web Fire Mapper are shown in Table FIRES NEAR BANDA SEA below:
TABLE FIRES NEAR BANDA SEA 23 to 25 October 2009.
See how tropical cyclone Lupit has been struggling snaking around the 130 longitude band where the Major Quakein Banda Sea was taking shape!
The dominant reason is the dam: The India dams with the center of gravity of the water masses stored behind them at 23,78.75 and the China dams, center of gravity at 24.734, 111.96 and the joint center of gravity of India-China dams at 24.738, 102.1527.
8th October 2009
THE PAST BECOMES THE FUTURE!
A series of shallow major earthquakes struck the 160-180 longitude band in the -30 to 0 latitude range with a peak of 7.8 MM at Vanuatu:
As on 10th August 2009, the stress table indicated the 160-180 longitude band as the 4th most stressed, with the next major earthquake having a magnitude of 7.86 MM, the mean for the earthquakes between 1.1.2008 to 10th August 2009 being at -13.95, 171.3. The historical monthly mean for the peak magnitude earthquake in the latitude band -30 to 0 in this longitude band is: -16.22,167.46,7.5MM,41.4km. The past becomes the future!
4th October 2009
A strong earthquake occurred on 4th October 2009 in Phillippines:
See that Hurricane Parma at its initiation was pointing towards this hotspot(Table SBU10August2009,120-140 longitude band):
7.75,127.25,Depth approx 80 km and at this earthquake epicenter very nearly.
See the image below:
See the interconnection?
3 October 2009
A strong earthquake occurred in Taiwan on the 3rd of October 2009:
The historicam mean of the monthly peak magnitude earthquake is(from Table PMQHMM7308):
22.4,122.1,7.7 MM, Shallow.
The past becomes the future! Time and again!
The disaster prevention groups all over the world should really get their acts together!
30 September 2009
On 30th September 2009 a major earthquake occurred in Southern Sumatra:
This longitude band,80-100, is ranked sixth in the stress table for 10th August 2009 and and looking at the satellite picture of the India Meteorological Department below for 1 October 2009,0530 UTC it stands to reason that this occurred on 30th September 2009 after the great earthquake in the Samova Islands Region on 29th September 2009 because of the surge wave of water pressure heads at the centers of gravity of water masses behind dams. Compare with the historical monthly mean for the Peak Magnitude earthquake:
Lat -0.94,Long 94.12,Mag 7.5MM,Depth 32.5 km.
29th September 2009
A shallow great earthquake which caused a disastrous tsunami (at least 100 deaths so far)occurred in the Samova Islands Region on 29th September 29 2009:
My table for the historical mean monthly peak magnitude earthquake has the following entry for the latitude band 0 to -30 in the longitude band -180 to -160:
Lat -20.7686,Long -175.71, Mag 7.7 MM,Depth 146.26.
One must as usual gasp and say, the past becomes the future but what a shallow depthy one! And therefore so much destructive that a simultaneous catastrophe of a tsumani occurred.
The India Meterological Department data for September 29 2009 at 0730 UTC all India rains is:
The data for all India rains for the 2009 south west monsoon season as on 30th September 2009 is:
NOTICE THE SURGE OF ALL-INDIA RAINS FROM 27th September 2009 to 30th September 2009?
The comments below for 7th September 2009 that dams are causing such phenomena is being scientifically reconfirmed time and again!
Its the extravagant electricity demands causing the need for huge dams that overlooked the sum total of surges of bending stresses and forces applied across faults that are repeatedly causing these man made natural catastrophes. When will the world community wake up to this lacuna in design and cause new ways of living? Hope the world community wakes up NOW to my scientific findings instead of ignoring them. The Love waves followed by the Rayleighs along the earth's crust!
21st September 2009
A strong earthquake occurred in Bhutan on 21 September 2009:
widely felt in
Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, northern parts of West Bengal, Bihar, parts of other
eastern regions of India, Nepal and Bangladesh.
The hotspot for 10th August 2009(Table SBU10Aug2009) which is also the mean of all earthquakes from 1.1.2008 till 10th August 2009 is at 19.49,91.48 at a depth of 27 km.
13th September 2009
A strong earthquake occurred offshore Venezeula on 12th September 2009 as anticipated by the mean of historical measurements in the longitude band -80 to -60(1973 to 2008):
Magnitude 6.4 MM
Date and time 2009/09/12 20:06:25
Latitude 10.757
Longitude -67.847
Depth 10.0 km
Region OFFSHORE ARAGUA, VENEZUELA
See Table HM below, Rank No 11 for the historical mean location of the monthly peak magnitude earthquake:
Latitude 8.36
Longitude -73.298
Depth 19.4 km
The earthquake occurred at a hotspot cluster in this longitude band as is evident from the screen shot of the Web Fire Mapper under News for 2nd September 2009 below.
7th September 2009
A strong shallow earthquake occurred on 7th September 2009 South of Java Indonesia. Again this was preceded by heavy rain on the Indian Subcontinent:
Figure 2009SWM: India: South West Monsoon 2009, Source India Meterological Department.
http://www.imd.gov.in
About six hours later another strong shallow earthquake occurred in the longitude band 40-60 in Georgia on the other side of the centre of gravity of dams in India:
Both these strong earthquakes are located in persisting hotspot clusters. See hotspot map of FIRMS,University of Maryland as shown below(2nd September 2009). These hotspots are created by the surges of huge water pressure head changes of tens to hundreds of km/sec at the centers of gravity of water masses behind heavily dammed regions like India, China, USA, Koreas,Japan, Europe,South America and Africa. The correlation is seen clearly deterministically for Indian and Chinese dams during the South West Monsoon as brought out here.
2nd September 2009
A major 7.0 MM earthquake occurred in Java:
Update time = Wed Sep 2 8:40:00 UTC 2009
As per the stress table as of 10 August 2009, an earthquake in this longitude range was ranked third. The historical mean nearest this location from Table PMQHMM7308 below is
Lat -7.4 long 107.533 Magnitude 8MM depth 33.4 km. The prediction from Table 0910 below has therefore been accurate. The mean date has a range from 11th to 18th. But a huge surge in rainfall during the monsoon 0n the 31st of August 2009 updates the average picture: see the mean daily rainfall data for India for the South West Monsoon 2009:
This rainfall surge translated into a surge of water pressure
head change at the center of gravity of the reservoir water
masses on the Indian Subcontinent and a similar head
change at the centre of gravity of those in China,Korea
and Japan resulting in a surge of Love and Raleigh waves
throughout the fault lines at the crust of the earth from
the Sagaing fault into the Indonesian arc resulting in
the shallow quake at almost the same historical mean
location for the latitude range -30 to 0 in the longitude
band 100-120.
See how the Indonesian Ring of Fire has been
experiencing constant rubbing on the two sides
of the fault line generating hotspots and earthquakes:'+-+firefly_geog_umd_edu_firemap1stsep20097dayshot.png)
14 August 2009
Prediction using USGS data base prior to the 7.6 MM major earthquake just north of Andaman Nicobar Isles Region on 10th August 2009.
Heavy Rains on 26th July in India and China caused a swarm of earthquakes to appear in the Andaman Nicobar Islands Region:
I immediately sent out a message to andamanicobar@yahoogroups.com and to waterwatch@yahoogroups.com indicating that a major
The stress Table SBU10Aug2009 is :
The historical data for these 18 longitude bands for the monthly peak magnitude earthquake is:
It is once again to be seen that the 7.6 MM quake did indeed occur in the region as my prediction expected(7.7 MM), see Sr No 6 in Table SBUAug102009,mean location 19.48,91.08,the actual location being 14.013,92.923. The historical mean is 7.23,96.62. With further heavy rains predicted by IMD in the coming days for India and China also being in the grip of the monsoon(15-20 rainy days in many provinces for August) further major quakes may be due in the coming weeks. Note that some 1500 MW of additional hydro capacity has come into operation in the current year in India alone. The rains in India for the current monsoon so far has been as follows:
Source India Metereological Department: http://www.imd.gov.in/
Earthquakes, strong to major has followed each of the rain surges. This is the norm.
Actual and Predicted date, magnitude and location for the peak magnitude earthquake for July 2009
The 7.7 MM major quake at South Island New Zealand on 15th July 2009 was as expected. The history for the –30 to –50 latitude band in the 160 to 180 longitude band is
Latitude, Longitude, magnitude MM,depth(km):
The actual data is : Date,Time, Latitude, Longitude, magnitude MM,depth(km):
Note the surge in All India rains 14th to 17th July 2009. China had very heavy rains with storms during this period. The heavy impulse surge of 50-100 km/sec(Ten to Twenty Mount Everest heights) in the water pressure head at the center of gravity of the India China combine of dams translate into deadly Love and Raleigh waves of strong and major earthquakes traveling the crust of the earth wreaking hurricanes by heating up at faults and causing the Kosi fan tragedy, the Taiwan tragedy(Typhoon Murakot) and the China disaster causing millions to flee like rats and much more to come in an all too predictable determinism. In fact the hurricanes follow the earthquake hotspots and the hurricane path can be predicted and in turn the on coming quake can be predicted to occur in the path of the hurricane (See for example 10W-09 and the major Izu quake):
Note: The image is from the NOAA website while the 7.1 Izu quake location and legend has been added by the author.
11th July 2009
Predictions for July 2009 for the Location of the Peak Magnitude Earthquake
The ranges for the magnitude and the date of the peak magnitude occurrence have already been estimated:
7.3 MM to 7.7 MM and July 16 to 22(Table 0910).
The ranks for the earthquakes in decreasing order of the rate of stress build up in the 18 longitude bands for July 2009 are in Table SBUJuly92009 below. The dynamics of the locations of the hotspots are compared with the means of the locations of the earthquakes in the 18 longitude bands between 1.1.2008 and 8th July 2009. These are contrasted with those of the historical mean locations of the monthly peak magnitude earthquakes. These dynamics are captured in Figure 23.
Prediction and Actuals for June 2009
June 2009 was a low low spin month! The eight strong earthquakes had a total seismic moment whose equivalent moment magnitude was 6.9 MM. All the earthquakes together in June 2009 had a Seismic Moment Sum whose equivalent moment magnitude was 7.0. This is near the predicted lower limit of 7.1 MM. See discussion under April 2009.
19 June 2009
As there is a major hotspot swarm in the 0-20 and 20-40 longitude bands with more than 6000 hotspots(see Figure HA2June09) we must be alert regarding these two longitude bands for a possible major earthquake in June.
This is significantly the same as for the previous hydrological year June 2008 to May 2009:Table 6869:
The curve of the mean epicenters worldwide is a signature of the daily electric load demand worldwide. So is the daily hotspot curve(Join the yellow diamonds in the graph).
The following Table details the evaluation data:
The Table AEJune2008May2009 shows that the past predicts the future deterministically (because of the dams) as captured graphically in Figure 20:
The Table also brings out that when the earth goes into low spin allowing only strong earthquakes, the sum of the seismic moments of the strong earthquakes for each low spin month equals that of a major earthquake, because of the way the magnitudes of peak magnitude earthquakes are predicted. The Seismic Moment predicted for the Peak Magnitude Quake in any month is either for a single major earthquake or for the sum of seismic moments of strong earthquakes totaling to that of a major quake.
Diary for the Hydrological Year 2008-2009.
The predictions for 2008-2009:
Note : In the above Table the colour coded column indicating the rank in order of probability of occurrence is for the expected earthquake for June 2008 only. Please disregard the colour code for this purpose.
die hard ! This prediction has proved a boon for disaster prevention by adopting policies based on truth, that is, the ground realities, rather than outmoded science regarding instantaneous geophysical processes triggered by man's specialist blinkered interventions into nature's intricate webs of holistic harmony.
According to Mahatma Gandhi who stated unequivocally at the begin of the last century:
"The West must throw overboard almost the whole of modern civilisation, if the East is to meet the West; the West can also meet the East if the East embraced modern civilisation; but that will be an armed truce."
The specialist society is characterised by the fact that it does not know. And it does not know that it does not know. Thats the definition of a fool. And fools must be shunned. Wendell Berry brought this out also by his contempt for a society ruled by specialists with the following true statement of fact:
"In living in this world by his own will and skill, the stupidest peasant or tribesman is more competent than the most intelligent worker or technician or intellectual in a society of specialists."(In The Unsettling of America: Culture and Agriculture.Sierra Club Books/Avon. 1975/1980).
The Brazilian President has stated similarly about modern civilisation's actors.
Will democracy flourish by dire need through the valiant resistance of others who see the truth?
Nomenclature: MaxRSBU: Maximum Rate of Stress Build Up; SSM: Sum of Seismic Moments;QN: Number of Earthquakes; MeanTime: Mean of time of occurrence of quake;MeanLat: Mean of Latitude of Earthquakes;MeanLon: Mean of Longitude of quakes;MMM: Mean Magnitude of quakes;MD: Mean Depth of quakes; SSMEQMM: Magnitude equivalent to SSM;MSM: Mean of Seismic Moments; LogSSM: Log to base 10 of SSM.
The correlation between Mean earthquake epicenters of each longitude band(1.1.2008 to 9th May 2009), the nearest monthly peak magnitude mean location for the history of earthquake peaks(1973 to 2008) for each longitude band and the location of hotspot means for each longitude band for a single day-10th May 2009 is deterministic, not merely statistically significant.This is possible because the phenomena are being caused year after year by a single forcing function- the persistent changes in electrical load demand and other consumptive uses of water from the dams as well as the dam filling activity during the monsoons and during snow melting. A pictorial guide to this phenomenon is shown in Figure 19. The hotspots are from data base for 10th May 2009 of Fire Information Management System, Web Fire Mapper: http://maps.geog.umd.edu/firms/maps.asp
17th April 2009, 0100 UTC
Cyclone Bijli 09 is pointing towards the intense hotspot around 20, 103. Watch out for quakes in this longitude band!
12th April 2009
Together with the hotspot mean information as provided by the historical data for earthquakes and the Global Fire Data as on 11th April 2009, it is possible to infer that the 120-140 longitude band is experiencing intense rubbing due to bending moment applied by the water head surges at the world’s dams initiated by electrical load demand on the hydrogenerators.
11 April 2009
At 1700 hrs UTC an intense heat build up has been noticed in the 28-53 longitude band. Thus the 20-40 longitude band is also in the reckoning for the occurrence of the peak magnitude earthquake.
0700 hrs UTC.
Considering the intense heat build up in the longitude band 90 to 100, with an average stress build up of 0.017 as SSM(Seismic Moment Sum) between 1/1/2008 till 9th April 2009, the 80-100 longitude band becomes a prime candidate for the peak magnitude earthquake along with the others notified on 9 April 2009. This intense heat build up is visible in the Global Web Fire Mapper at http://maps.geog.umd.edu/firms(NASA/University of Maryland, 2002. MODIS Hotspot / Active Fire Detections. Data set. MODIS Rapid Response Project, NASA/GSFC [producer], University of Maryland, Fire Information for Resource Management System [distributors]. )
9 April 2009
8th March 2009
The heat build up shows that in addition to the longitude bands notified on 25th February 2009, the longitude bands 100-120 and 80-100 are also in the reckoning for the occurrence of the Peak magnitude Quake(PMQ) during March 2009. The latitude and longitude of the hotspots(MLat and MLong) shown in Table SBU2322009 for these longitude bands are the expected locations for these. These are 19.68,106 and 20.51,90.82 respectively.
25th February 2009.
Using information on the trend of Stress Change, the most likely longitude bands in order of descending stress change between 25th February and 12th March for the Peak magnitude earthquake (PMQ) to occur are 120 to 140,140 to 160,160 to 180 and –180 to –160. The likely latitudes in these longitude bands for the PMQ are respectively
Beware the March ides!
Please proactive managers
Look for omnicide!
15th February 2009.As predicted in Table 6869 prepared in May 2008, the peak magnitude earthquake, a major earthquake of magnitude 7.2 MM occurred on 11th February 2009 at 3.9,126.4 at a depth of 20 km( in the expected latitude band 0-30 and Longitude Band 120-140 as shown below). As per stress build up before the earthquake (USGS data as on 12 February 2009 for quakes till 10th February 2009), Stress Table 12F09P shows that the earthquake in this longitude band has rank 4 in descending order of stress build up till 10th February 2009. However the trend shows that 120-140 longitude band has the greatest stress change compared to all the other longitude bands. See Figure 1 below. A similar procedure for January Peak Magnitude Earthquake yields the peak to have the greatest stress change in the same longitude band in January 2009, which indeed happened (See narration for January 2009). The location is close to the historical mean as in Table PMQHMM7308, item 9, row for Latitude range 0-30(1): 1.5225,125.08.
Two major earthquakes occurred on the 3rd of January 2009:1. Magnitude 7.6 MM: At 194355,Latitude: -0.51,Longitude 132.783, Depth 35 km;Location:Near the North Coast of Papua Indonesia;
2. Magnitude 7.3 MM: At 223342,Latitude: -0.695,Longitude 133.279,Depth 35km;Location: Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia.
The historical mean for the -30 to 0 latitude band and 120-140 longitude band is:Latitude -4.96,Longitude 129.6, Depth 28 km, Magnitude 7.675 MM (23 peak magnitude shallow earthquakes between 1973 and 2008), see Table PMQHMM7308 here in this compendium.
The prediction for January 2009 is given in Table 6869 above: 7 to 7.7 MM, central tendency of 7.5 MM expected between 10th to 16th January 2009.The prediction is accurate to within 6-7 days and the magnitude is within the predicted range. The actual location is reasonably close to the historical mean for the latitude and longitude range in which it has occurred.
December 9th 2008A major earthquake occurred at Kermadec Isles as reported by USGS on 9th December 2008:
Compare this with my prediction on 30th November 2008 given below. Lets wait till the end of the month for other developments if any.
The corresponding Table SBU291108 follows:
Under nomenclature please read SSM as Seismic Moment Sum.
The latitude and longitude have been indicated twice above for Excel calculations and has no significance here.
13th November 2008
The expected location for the peak magnitude earthquake (7.2 to 7.9 MM between 15th to 21st November 2008) is shown in Figure 111108 as of 11/11/2008:
The numbers indicate the rank in order of probability of occurrence at the particular location. The mean hotspot is the mean of the epicentres of all the earthquakes in the particular longitude band that occurred between 1/1/2007 to 11/11/2008 as given by the USGS database on 11/11/2008 under Search EQ database.The corresponding Table 1111081107 appears below Figure111108:
12th October 2008
Prediction for October 2008
The predicted dates and magnitudes for October 2008 are shown in Table 6869. The ranks of the various longitude bands in decreasing order of probability of earthquake occurrence are shown in the map below(Figure PROCT2008). Note that the earthquakes are all expected to be shallow even though they are shown red instead of brown.
The stresses in the various longitude bands for October 2008 are as in Table SBU81008 as of 8/10/2008.
The peak magnitude earthquake for August 2008 occurred on 25/8/2008 in Western Xizang of magnitude 6.7MM as detailed below:
It is a shallow hypocenter. The August predictions ranked this earthquake at No.4 See Table Ason7808 below under 7th August 2008. The predicted location according to Table PMQHMM7308 is a historical mean of 35.49, 86.42 at a mean depth of 22km. Luckily it happened at a sparsely populated area. Since the earth went into a low spin mode in August 2008, the peak magnitude earthquake was only a strong one, not a major earthquake. 25th July is seven days later than the upper limit of 19/8/08 of my prediction. But the range of the date of occurrence of PMQ and of its magnitude is a mean historical value and therefore appropriate to the mean rainfall rather than the present hydrological year’s. That’s why because the 19th -20th of August recorded one of the lowest values of daily rains for August 2008, the PMQ did not occur on this date. Rather on the 25th when the 25th-26th rain registered a larger kick compared to that of the 19th - 20th. Also the heat developed in the 80-100 longitude band was strong enough for this magnitude of earthquake to occur. Nuri-08 pointed towards this hot spot a week earlier. See Figures below:
The Prediction of the location of the peak magnitude earthquake for September 2008
The stress per unit earthquake in the various longitude bands gave the following rankings for the peak magnitude earthquake for September 2008:
The current storms are those in the Atlantic and likely locations of the earthquakes to occur are in the New Madrid Great earthquake Region, 36.6,-89.6; Oregon region(44,-115.8) and Off the coast of Oregon(46.,-125.8). Of course the locations for the ranks in the Table SBU2908 may be judged from Table PMQHMM7308 above. The expected dates range from 10/9/2008 to 17/9/2008 (Table 6869).
By combining the two tables SBU2908 and PMQHMM7308 we put part of the information on prediction of earthquakes together:
Table SBU2908A(cont’d):
End of Table SBU2908A.
How was data for monthly mean peak magnitude earthquake parameters from June 1973 to May 2008 obtained? See Table lB1001207308 which was prepared for longitude band 100-120 from 1/6/1973 to 31/5/2008:
The saga of Katrina: All hot spots for the generation of storms are generated by earthquakes.
7th August 2008
The expected locations are marked in Figure RA(As of 7th August 2008):
For monitoring, it is necessary to refer to Table PMQHMM7308 for the mean historical locations apart from those in Figure RA(As of 7th August 2008). It may be noted that the first rank is corresponding to the neighbourhood of the Sichuan quake of 12th May 2008. The rankings are radically different from those given on 31st July 2008 which assumed that the overall stress governs all longitude bands.
31st July 2008
Because of the heavy rains in July 2008 much higher than normal on July 27th-28th, it is possible that the peak magnitude earthquake for August may occur earlier than expected (See Table 6869). The stress table giving the ranking for August is (Table RA):
These are entered in the map below(Figure RA):
The history Mean hot spots for 17 longitude bands are as shown in the following extended table (PMQHMM7308): For the 18th longitude band, -60 to -40 the hot spot may be read off from Table RA for the present.
It is notable that the ranking is so radically different from that obtained as of 9th July 2008!
2008,07,19,023928.70, 37.55, 142.21,7.0, 22
The location corresponded closely to one of the mean hot spots for 140-160 longitude band(42,146).Another way to look at the correctness of the location is to look at the 30-50 latitude hot spot for the neighbouring longitude band 120-140(37,136). Both are shallow. See Table PMQHMM7308 above. Thus all the predicted parameters were close to the actual.
28th July 2008
There has been the heaviest All-India rainfall for the season 2008-09 so far :
The above graph appears at http://www.imdpune.gov.in/mons_monitor/all-India.gif
Provided the earth does not go into a low spin mode, a major earthquake may occur in the coming days. The probable locations are given in Table ELPMQJUL08A below. Considering the cyclone Fung-Wong's path, the heat production in the fault lines indicates that the quake may occur in the 100-120 longitude band at around the historical mean for 100-120 band indicated in the above Table. See the URL:
http://damsequakescyclones.blogspot.com/ for the plausibility.
It may be seen from this graph how the major quakes have all occurred after heavy all-India rains during June-July 2008. See comments below.
19th July 2008
A major 7.0 MM shallow earthquake occured at 37.615 deg latitude, 142.115 deg longitude at a depth of 27km on 19th July 2008. The prediction was 140 to 160 longitude band ranked third for July as a whole. One of the past data for peak magnitude earthquakes(PMQs) is a historical mean of 41.96,145.98,also a shallow earthquake(Table PMQHMM7308 below). It is interesting that this pattern has occurred before. See the data on PMQ for June. Also compare this quake of today with the PMQ for June and note the closeness. Also note that a deep focus earthquake of 7.7 MM occurred on the 5th of July 2008 in the 140-160 band and now a shallow one. There was heavy All India rain on the 17th July preceding the July 19th 2008 quake. The predominantly North India rains so far has caused latitude range 30-50 to be the location of major earthquakes this monsoon. A majority of earthquakes in the damage causing range have been in this latitude range during the current monsoon.
13th July 2008
The Table 6869 above gives the prediction of date and magnitude of the monthly peak magnitude earthquakes during June 2008 to May 2009.
The Japanese authorities modified the magnitude of the earthquake to be 7.2 MM, in contrast to the USGS estimate of 6.9 MM. The expected location on the basis of the historical mean is
This is close to the actual. Also the date and magnitude are within the expected range. Also the earthquake on 13th June 2008 followed peak magnitude all India rain on the 12th of June 2008.
The most probable location is Rank 1 which is 160 to 180 longitude band and expected location being the Macquarie Ridge based on the maximum specific stress at the location for the probability of the number of earthquakes at the specified longitude band. A major but deep earthquake(633 km deep) of 7.7 MM
June 13 2008/ June 1 2008
The prediction for the hydrological year June 2008 to May 2009 is given in the following Table 6859: The ranking for the most possible location for the peak magnitude earthquake in June 2008 is also given. Will the earth go into low spin mode in June 2008?
The expected locations are indicated in yellow in the following Table for all the twelve ranks(if there are more than one location for a given rank, the quake may occur in one of them of course):The figures in brackets are the number of peak magnitude earthquakes for the concerned variable.
How do you rate the prediction? You think it would help administrators of proactive disaster management and also planners?
A GREAT PRINCIPLE OF NATURE
The history nearest this area is as follows for peak magnitudes earthquakes in a month(Table PMQ80100):
The magnitude 7.9 MM is beyond the extremum of my prediction of 7.3 to 7.7 MM(after three revisions,7.5,7.8 and then 7.9). The date about less than 18 hrs off from the expected minimum date of 13th May 2008. The location is reasonably near the nearest historical location and is shallower. An enterprising proactive strategy to go by my prediction setting off a few precautionary days before the expected date, say 9th May and in the expected first five or six ranked longitude bands and at the historical locations + or – a few degrees up or down to be alert like a hungry tiger on the prowl. If one had been cavalier enough to accept that 100-120 long band would be the first rank(including the swarm ratio its indeed so) , they would have evacuated the hapless people away to say various sanctuaries in China and retuned after the day to help. If people had been enterprising enough to kill and maim future generations with atmospheric nuke tests can they not also be vastly more creative. As Wendell Berry says, in its difficulty lies its possibility. I have relooked at Table 11007 created specifically for October 2007 and have added some sets which were disregarded because the relative risk was less than unity. I will issue a general table as soon as its ready, so that we can see that such an effective management strategy could be implemented. Right now, its full efforts after all the horses have bolted(See BBC news today).
And two major quakes preceded this in February 2008:
These are in the longitude band 80-100.
Lets hope that in May the earth goes into a low spin mode and mitigates the suffering of the people,by the people but for all! Otherwise:
The details are:
On the 9th of April the peak magnitude earthquake, a major 7.3 MM quake occurred in the longitude band 160-180, 6th Rank in the table:
Another major earthquake occurred on the 12th of April 2008 in longitude band 140-160,ranked 8th in the table.
For planning alert status, these predictions would have helped. Looking at the possible latitude expectation from historical data(Table 11007), col. 3 states -16,167.4 for the mean latitude and the mean longitude and 7.4 for the mean magnitude. This shows that the past became the future! Similarly for the 7.1 MM major quake of 12th April, the expectation of latitude, longitude and magnitude is –58.77, 155.5 and 8 MM. The historical latitude and longitude are close. Again the past appears to determine the future. We have seen this to be the ground reality many times in the past. A single overwhelming cause may be determining the occurrence(Indian dams).
Rank 2 20-40 RSBU Mean 0.00124, latest rise 0.00774 in units of SSM/Earthquake, Max/Mean= 6.25.
Rank 3 120-140 RSBU Mean 0.00594, latest rise 0.02439, Max/Mean= 4.1
Rank 4 140-160 RSBU Mean 0.01634, latest rise 0.047, Max/Mean= 2.88
Rank 5 –180-160 RSBU Mean 0.0324, latest rise 0.0524, Max/Mean= 1.62.
(qd8208 Sh3! AD177AK185 Table 3408A).
The expected longitude and latitude within these expected longitude bands can be got from Table 11007 below.
21st March 2008
A major earthquake of 7.2 MM magnitude occurred on 20th March 2008 at the China Tibet border:
The history from 1973 on wards in this longitude band has been:
The location is thus near the minimum for the recent locations which is in the neighbourhood of the current location.
This is the peak magnitude earthquake in this month so far. See Table 178 for the prediction:
“The peak magnitude earthquake (PMQ) is expected to occur between 12th to 18th March 2008 and the expected magnitude range is 7MM to 8.1 MM”.
11th March 2008
Low Spin Mode Prediction for March 2008.
High Spin Mode Prediction for March 2008.
If the earth goes into a high spin mode, allowing only large and great earthquakes to result, the expected peak magnitude range is 7.3MM to 8.2MM. The expected date: 12th to 18th as before.
1st March 2008
The peak magnitude quake for February 2008 occurred on 20th Feb 2008, and the predicted and actual parameters compare as described for 20th Feb 2008. See Table PA 78.
20th February 2008
A major and shallow earthquake took place at Simuele, Indonesia today:
This is three days later than the prediction: 11th to 17th, Magnitude 6.8MM to 7.6MM(Table 178). Location: See Table 11007 below, column for longitude band 80 to 100: -0.94,94.12,7.5 MM. It is within the magnitude range and equal to the magnitude stated alongside the expected location(the second one among three locations in the Table). This is about 3.75 degrees away from the expected latitude and 1.8 to 1.9 degrees away from the expected longitude! In the stress evaluation Table 8208, as of 8th Feb 2008, calculated from 1st June 2007, the longitude band is ranked sixth.
19th February 2008.
A strong shallow quake of 6.9 MM occurred on 14th February 2008 in Southern Greece as predicted.See Table 178 below. The details of the quake are:
As given in Table 11007 below, this location was predicted to be one of 5 locations for this longitude band 20 to 40 namely latitude 40.26, Longitude 27.05: Out by about 4 to 5 degrees for latitude and longitude. The location as on Feb 17th 2008 has a rank of 2: As on 17th February 2008, the ranking for peak magnitude quakes is as given in Table 170208B:
8th February 2008January 2008 was a month in which the earth went into a low spin mode. I will issue predictions for low spin mode also so the authorities can keep watch and take appropriate action.
Prediction for February 2008
When the Total Stress Build Up is considered for longitude band ranking, the following ranks result (Table 8208A):
The first five rankings for both criteria remain the same. The authorities may watch out regarding the changes after the fifth ranking for giving alert.For expected latitude for the expected longitude band see Table 11007 below.
2nd January 2008
On the 19th of December 2007 a shallow major earthquake of Magnitude 7.1 MM occurred in Alaska at 09:30:27 UTC at 51.36,-179.54 at a depth of 29 km.
Note that as given in Table 178 a major to a great earthquake was predicted between 15 -21
December 2007 with a magnitude range of 7.1 -8.3 MM. The predicted location was given in Table 11007 below. The nearest expected location was 52.88,-167.6.
Prediction of peak magnitude earthquake for January 2008
Table 178 predicts a major earthquake ranging in magnitude between 7.1 to 7.8 MM to occur between 10th to 16th January 2008. For the expected location see Table 11007. The ranking of the expected longitude band is shown in Table 2JAN2008:
The ranks are persisting for the first five positions! The concerned authorities may watch out for them given the uncanny accuracy of previous predictions, for purposes of vigil to save precious lives.
11th December 2007The PMQ for Nov 2007 occurred on 14th November 2007 and the prediction and the actuals are compared in the Table Nov2007:
24th November 2007
4th October 2007
During October the Peak Magnitude Earthquake (PMQ) is expected to be in the range 7.2 to 7.9 MM and to occur between 11th to 17th (See Table 178 prepared at the begin of the present hydrological year June 2007 to May 2008). The ranking of the location is given in the table (ELPMQOCT111707) according to 3 criteria. The ranking according to the middle criterion: Rate of Rise of Residual Stress (in rocks) appears to be most in accord with the actual occurrences in the past 7 days. The parameters have been computed for the period June to 1 October 2007 as per USGS data base on 1st October 2007. The other two criteria are: 1. Sum of the Seismic Moments during the period for each longitude band as a percent of the maximum Seismic Moment for the band during the period and 2. The number of earthquakes during the period for each band. The ranking is on the basis of descending order for each criterion’s parameter. Note that the upper estimate for the PMQ has been revised to 7.9 from 7.8. See Table 11007 for details of expected locations: Rank and Latitude and Longitude.
Or http://deathdealersnukes.blogspot.com/
From Figure PMQR, we see that a significant change in rainfall rate results in significant earthquakes(2 major Peak Magnitude Quake(PMQ)s on 19th August 2002 and a great earthquake on 15th August 2007).Examining this a little deeper on a daily basis, the relation between worldwide daily earthquakes and All-India daily rainfall is seen to be significant in the dam era (1900 to the present) and not significant in the pre dam era(-2150 to 1900). See Figure CRPMQ:
For details of the possible latitude and longitude ranges see Table EP below.
2nd July 2007
The peak magnitude earthquake for June 2007 was a strong one and took place on two occasions:(date,Time,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth,Seismic Moment(x10^19.05 Nm) and earthquake Id:
The earth went into a low spin mode in June 2007. Note that June 13, when the first of 6.7 MM magnitude earthquakes occurred, was within the expected range for the date of occurrence but the location was not the expected one. The second one occurred about 7 days later than the upper limit for the expected date but the location was bang on target! There were six strong earthquakes in June 2007, three of which were in the expected longitude band 140-160 and all of them together produced a total Seismic Moment (absolute value) exceeding the value for a major earthquake.
The updated Table 178 is as below:
Prediction for July 2007
From Table EP below, the most probable earthquake location is in longitude band 140-160. See details for the latitude and longitude. On a scale of earthquake risk of 1 to 12, relative to the period 1673 to 31307, the other earthquake locations in order of decreasing relative risk are shown in the Table.
Table EP: Expected locations for the major earthquake expected between 16th to 22nd July 2007 of magnitude 7.3 to 7.7 MM:
Rank 1 Latitude -5.6 Longitude 151 or 41.8 and 145.8
Rank 2 -15.89, 167.3
Rank 3 -4.96,129.6 or 11.43, 125.2
The other locations with lesser risk as of date for a major quake are:
Latitude -59.9, Longitude -27.15; 35.9,52.99; 39.92,70.71; 13.36,-90.78; 44.54,-127 and
39.73,11.98.
13th June 2007
The most likely location for the peak magnitude earthquake expected in June 2007 is in longitude band 140 to 160:
20th May 2007.
Prognosis for May 2007: An update.
As per earthquake search data of 19th May 2007, the data base study throws up the following revision for the Stress Build Up figures:
17th May 2007
Prognosis for May 07(update).
Follow up of Stress Build Up.
Comparison between 5th May 07 and 17th May 07 data.
Table EL17May07 shows the build up of stress in the three longitude bands one of which is expected to be the location band for the May 07 peak magnitude quake:
It is seen that from 5th May to 17th May, that is in 12 days the number of earthquakes in each of the three locations has doubled compared to that from April 1 to 5th May- 35 days. Thus earthquake activity has multiplied six-fold. The stress build up in the longitude band 140 to 160 is exponential as shown by the figure SBU140160May1707. This exponential build up of stress is not exhibited by the other two longitude bands. The most likely location for the peak magnitude earthquake is in the 140-160 longitude band.
16th May 20
Prognosis for May 2007: Revision.
The prognosis for May 07 has undergone a revision following a revision in the USGS data which has withdrawn the second great quake which was shown to have occurred on 1st April 2007 as per data for 5th May and 10th May. Accordingly, the peak magnitude quake having range 7.3 to 7.7 MM expected to occur in May between 14th to 21st may occur either in location having longitude band 140 to 160 or in location with longitude band 60 to 80 or –120 to -100. This is as per the stress analysis and probability tables for all longitude bands with the revision in the USGS data base visible from an earthquake search on 15th May 2007. However the ominous nature of the stress changes for longitude band 140-160 mentioned in the prognosis dated 8th May 2007 persists. Secondly, if the earthquake occurs in the longitude band 60-80, it would most probably be in the Himalayan region from past data. See Table ELPMQ1:
8th May 2007
Prognosis for May 2007
In Tables EL and EL1 stress changes(with 2 great quakes on April 1 2007) are measured from 1st April 2007:
13th April 2007
The probability ranks for expected location of the major quake of magnitude 7-7.7 MM expected between 13th to 20th April 2007 as on 11th April 2007 are shown in Table PR11407: 4 out of the first five ranks are in both the types of rankings: one based on total stress per quake and the other based on total stress.The most probable location for the major quake is expected to be among the first five ranks: Longitude bands: -180 to -160,100 to 120,40 to 60, 120 to 140, 140 to 160 and -120 to -100. The calculations are from values between 25th of March and 11th April generally. We also see differences between 2nd April 07 data and 11th April data.
9th April 2007
A great earthquake occurred in Solomon Islands on 1st April 2007:
8.1 MM 2007/04/01 20:39:56 -8.48 156.98 10 SOLOMON ISLANDS.
The table below shows the bands of longitude in which major quakes are expected to occur between the 13th to the 20th of April 2007 as per data on 2nd April 2007.
On the basis of the stress build up shown in the above table and the clubbing of the rankings for the bands 140 to 160 and 160 to 180, it is logical to expect the Solomon Isles quake as imminent after the Vanuatu quake.
25 March 2007
A major earthquake occurred in Vanuatu on 25th March 2007:
See Tables below:
From the above Tables SRPUTS and TSBU, we see that the longitude band of the Vanuatu quake, 160-180 has moved to the highest probability ranking from 11th March 2007 to 25th March 2007. From Table 167, we see that the expected magnitude range was 7-8 MM and the expected date of occurrence, between the 12th to the 18th. So it has occurred a week later but the magnitude is in the expected range. I shall wait till March end to confirm that this is indeed the peak for the month.
12 March 2007
14 February 2007.
12 February 2007
A strong to a major earthquake was predicted by me to occur between 10th to 16th February 2007 ranging in magnitude between 6.8 MM to 7.6 MM. The rank for probability for the most likely location beginning with the highest is given in Table PSC according to three different criteria: Change in stress and stress release ratio per unit of those as on 13th January 2007, change per quake and change per day. The most probable locations are the longitude bands 60-80,-140 to -120 and perhaps the rest of the locations under each criteria for the first five ranks.
14January 2007
A great earthquake of 8.2 MM struck Kuril Is on 13th January 2007(the previous great quake was on 15th November, of 8.3 MM magnitude in the same area). Referring to Table 167 of my predictions, a major earthquake in the range 7 to 7.7 MM was predicted to occur between 10th to 16th of January 2007. I am out for the location by one longitude band from the band 120 to 140 namely 140 to 160! The actual magnitude 8.2 MM is the average for the high limit magnitude 8.7 predicted for December 2006 and that for January 2007,7.7 MM.I give below Table EPTS of stress build up studies for the 18 longitude bands conducted with the help of USGS data for 13th January 2007 under earthquake search:
The Stress Build Up correlates extremely significantly with the change in the natural logarithm of the % Stress Relief Ratio as shown in the Table SBUS0607 and Figure SRRTS0607:
From Table SBUS0607 we see that the maximum Stress Build Up has occurred in the longitude band 140-160 and thus we had the great earthquake in this longitude band, East of Kuril Isles.
The prediction and the actual.
The status for the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007 is as shown below in Table MGQ0607:
Considering the magnitude of the project, the success of the prediction method shows that it is worth watching out by the governing agencies so that it mitigates suffering on a vast scale. Connecting the effect with the cause and the cause with the effect has proved fruitful.
9th January 2007
Table SE predicts the probable location for the 7 to 7.7 MM quake predicted to occur between the 10th and 16th of January 2007:
See Table 167 below in the body of this compendium( or see header table 167 here !) for the predictions made for the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007, in particular for January 2007.
26th December 2006:
The location given the 9th rank as of data on 19th December rapidly moved to the first position on 26th December and a 7.1 MM major quake occurred in Taiwan disrupting communications by damaging a series of undersea cables. It was immeiately followed by a 6.9 MM quake there:
2006/12/26 12:34:14 22.00N 120.50E 10 6.9MM TAIWAN
2006/12/26 12:26:21 21.82N 120.53E 10 7.1MM TAIWAN REGION
23 December 2006
The latest stress analysis(as of 19th December 2006) has seen the addition of two longitude bands into the stress build up list. The following is the latest ranking for the probability of major and great quakes for December 2006:
Rank Londitude Band
1. -160 to -140.
2. 160-180
3. -140 to -120
4. -180 to -160
5. -100 to -80
6. -20 to 0
7. -120 to -100
8. -80 to -60
9. 120-140
10. 80 to 100.
11 December 2006.
The following Table shows the probable order of preference for the location of the major or great quake in December 2006 expected between 14th to the 21st:
2nd December 2006
The USGS data base for 1 or 2 December 2006 showed that the September 30 7.1MM major quake has been revised downward to 6.0MM and the 8.4 MM November 15 great quake which showed up 26 minutes after the 8.3 MM great quake in the November 26 data base has been removed. Thus the original September month data now again shows that it is a low spin month. The November great quake of 8.3 MM corresponds now to a stress relief ratio of 19.5 percent, still close to 19.743 percent- the theoretical figure(See also the URL:
http://earthquakecausedbydams.blogspot.com/).
December 2006 is expected to throw up a major to a great quake ranging from 7.1 to 8.7 MM and is slated to occur between 14th to 21st December 2006. The most probable location can be gleaned from the rankings: Probably Alaska, Hawaii or the rest of the Americas. But the Iran Region is also there as well as the Himalayan Region(Table N16R).
30 November 2006.
The data base for 26th November 2006(USGS) showed one more great earthquake(8.4 MM) some 26 minutes after the first great quake(8.3 MM) at almost the same location:
Data in the order: Quake No. from 1 Jan 2006(for Longitude Band 140 to 160),Year,Month,Day,UTC,Lat,Long,Moment Magnitude MM,Depth km,Seismic Moment Magnitude(Value multiply by 10E19.05 for N-m).
2086 20061115 111416.7 46.56 153.26 8.3 30 281.8383
2095 20061115 114055.2 46.5 154.74 8.4 10 398.1072
Following my method of assessing the stress build up using the time between earthquakes(TBQ) in the longitude band 140 to 160, I find that the stress relief ratio to be 20 percent( See http://www.geocities.com/rakumra/earthquakescausedbydams.pdf ), pointing to the validity of the data which arrived late on the second great earthquake in Kuril Isles. With this there has been a cluster of large and great quakes in Kuril Isles: September 30: 7.1(See TableMGQ0607 below), and great quakes in November(on the 15th). Looking at the history of very recent earthquakes, this is not unusual for November.
There may be a repeat of the sequence of three great earthquakes of hydrological year June 2004 to May 2005 during the current hydrological year but in the region of Kuril Islands/Alaska/North America. A great earthquake(Magnitude 8.7MM) is in the range of earthquakes predicted by me for December 2006.
20th November 2006
November 2006: Prediction and Actual
The predictions for November 2006 were realized bang on target: The expected date range was 15 to 22nd and it occurred on the 15th. The expected magnitude range was 7.2 to 8 MM and the actual magnitude was 8.3. One of the expected longitude bands-Rank 14: 140-160 was the location: Longitude 153.22, latitude 46.62, in one of the expected latitude ranges: 40-50: Kuril Isles. Almost the same location as for the major quake of September 2006. The Table below MGQ0607 shows the quakes so far in the hydrological year 2006-07:
The predictions for December 2006 are set forth in Table 167. December 14th to 21st 2006 expected dates with 7.1 to 8.7 MM as the expected magnitude range. So a great quake is also expected in December.The rankings as on 16th November together with the bands of longitude at which the earthquakes have already occurred in the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007 are shown in Table N16R(with two great earthquakes on 15th November 2006):
There are only minor differences in order from the rankings of October 7 2006(See Table MGQ0607 below).
November 6, 2006
October 2006, as of November 4, 2006 is a low-spin month. This is not surprising given that there is a one in three probability that two or more months in succession in any hydrological year from 1991 on would be in low-spin mode (Table LSF):
A major earthquake did take place on September 30th 2006
Now that in September 2006 a major quake did occur (on 30th), we count the number of times after exactly 2 consecutive major quake months a low-spin month occurred in two periods; 1, from 1973 to 1990; and 2, from 1991 to 2005. For the former period it is 19 while for the latter it is 6. This is again in inverse proportion to the mean cumulative reservoir capacities during the respective periods and is statistically extremely significant as well(Table LSF1). There was a two in 5 chance that October would be low-spin but a 3 in 5 chance that a major quake would occur in October. We may revise this result of low-spin for October later if new data arrives for the peak magnitude quake.
The low-spin did put out three 6.7 MM peak magnitude strong earthquakes: 1) off a big island of Hawaii on the 15th October, 2) in Papua New Guinea on the 17th and 3) off the coast of Southern Peru on the 20th , the date and the locations being as predicted (See Table 167, Table MGQ0607:Rank 9 and Table PMQAug06, row 11 for Hawaii, mean latitude and mean longitude)and details as follows for all the three:
Year Month Date Time Latitude Longitude MagnitudeDepth Long Band LatBand Rank
2006 10 15 170749.25 19.88 -155.93 6.7 38 -160 to–140 10-20 9
2006 10 17 12512.47 -5.88 150.99 6.7 32 140-160 -10-0 14
2006 10 20 104857.12 -13.44 -76.58 6.7 32 -80 to –60 -20to–10 18
Even though I had predicted a major quake these three quakes produced seismic moments which together exceeded the seismic moment of a 7 MM magnitude quake. Just as it happened for September 2006, it might be that we may revise October analysis if additional data is received later for the peak magnitude quake:
For September 2006, the data arrived a little late (on or before October 20th, but after October 7th) that, after all, September 2006 did have a major earthquake on 30th, magnitude 7.1MM, details as follows:
Year Month Date Time Latitude Longitude Magnitude Depth Long Band LatBand Rank
2006 9 30 175616.1 46.19 153.16 7.1 MM 10 140-160 40-50 14
The September 2006 major quake was indeed predicted (Table 167). The date band was given as 10th to 17th but it occurred on the 30th(an outlier) ! The 95% confidence upper limit of the time to earthquake peak between August to September is 33 days. So the upper limit of the mean date, 95% of the time, would be the 22nd. Now the location was predicted in the Table PMQSep06May07 to be the longitude slice 140-160, ranked 14, based on the number of quakes from Jan 2006 as on 7th September 2006. Table MGQ0607 predicted one of the probable latitudes to be FN 40-50 degrees (Kuril Islands, Japan) for this longitude slice. The predicted magnitude was between 7.2 to 7.8 MM.
So far the Table of earthquakes for hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007 has been filled up as follows:
Oct 28 2006:It appears that October is also headed for low-spin. This is not surprising given that there is a one in three probability that two or more months in succession in any hydrological year from 1991 on would be in low-spin mode(Table LSF):
The low-spin did put out a strong earthquake off a big island of Hawaii on the 15th October, the date and the location being as predicted (See Table 167, Table MGQ0607:Rank 9 and Table PMQAug06, row 11 for Hawaii, mean latitude and mean longitude)and details as follows:
Year 2006 Month October Date 15 Time 170748.2 Latitude 19.8 Longitude –156.5, Magnitude 6.7 Depth 29 km. However, we shall await the end of the month for confirmation and finalisation of the analysis of my prediction for October 2006.
The major to great earthquakes expected worldwide from October 2006 and beyond(till May 2007) are shown in the Table MGQ0607: For example if the earthquake in October were to occur in the longitude band Y 40 to 60 and latitude band FB 30 to 40, it would be the one ranked 4 in the table. As shown in Table 167, it is expected to be a major quake of magnitude 7.3 to 7.8 MM to occur between 11th to 17th.
So far this Table has been filled up as shown below:
The longitude bands which have been shown bold are the ones where major quakes occurred in the previous hydrological year.
Regarding the predictions for the last hydrological year June 2005 to May 2006, they were correct for ten of the twelve months as shown in Table MGQ0506. In two months the earth went into low spin mode and hence only strong earthquakes took place. Thus whenever the earth was not in a low spin mode there were major or great quakes. Hence given this fact, the predictions for major and great quakes turned out to be one hundred percent correct for the dates and magnitudes.
The peak magnitude quake for September was a strong quake as the earth went into low-spin during the month (Date: 28th September 2006, Time: UTC: 62209.65, Latitude –16.61, Longitude –172.02, Magnitude 6.9 MM, Depth 28 km, the Samoa Isles Region). The prognosis for October 2006 onwards for the location will remain the same as that given for September 2006 and beyond for major to great quakes. The major and great quakes are however the preferred choice for prediction because of the strength of association of Indian dams and major and great quakes in the world: The monthly percent number of major and great quakes correlates extremely significantly with the monthly percent change in water moment (Figure MGQWM): Only about 2 percent of the variations remain unexplained by this correlation:
The Low Spin Mode- An Investigation
Summary: The low-spin mode in which the monthly peak magnitude earthquake occurs with a magnitude at most of a strong quake (6 - 6.9 MM) has a mean period of 2.4 months (population standard deviation 3.22)(95% confidence interval for the mean: 1.74 to 3.07 months) as determined for a 33 year data base(USGS) from January 1973 to June 2006. Its occurrence is determined by the waves of force and the water moment exerted by the Indian dams on the faults worldwide: Extremely significant correlation exists between the mean cumulative reservoir capacity and the mean time between the low-spin events: Between June 87 and Sep 2006, 93 percent of the variations in the mean time is explained by this correlation(r= 0.964, p = 2.57E-30,n=52). There was a slightly less than one in two chance that September 2006 would be a low-spin month. However because of an 18/33 chance of a major quake, the September 2006 prediction was for a major quake (Table 167). In the end, the peak magnitude quake for September occurred in the Samoa Islands Region.
The Study.
The regularity with which the earth goes into low spin mode is brought out in the following Table (Table Low-spin):
The monthly low-spin numbers from June 1973- May 74 to June 2005- May 06 correlate statistically extremely significantly with the corresponding monthly change in water moment caused by the waters behind Indian dams as brought out in Figure LOSPINS:
There is extremely significant correlation between mean cumulative storage capacity and mean time between low-spin events as shown by Figure MTBLS:
The 7th September Table:
The data as of September 7 shows that for September peak magnitude quake longitude band 3-40 to 60- has the highest rank, followed by –20 to 0. Thereafter the order of expectation is ominously longitude bands –140 to –120 to –100 to –80(the American Continents), then 60 to 80 which is the region where in October 2005 a quake of 7.6 MM struck Kashmir and then back again to –160 to –140- the region of Alaska and Hawaii. Note that the band 40-60 of Turkey and Iran has taken the highest rank, assuming that Item No. 16, longitude band –60 to -40 has not yet reached critical stress. Note that rows in the column “Rank” indicate the order in which the peak magnitude quakes are expected to occur based on the number of quakes. Thus row 1 in column “ Rank” is 1 corresponding to item 16, longitude band –60 to –40 with least number of quakes, 60 given in the next two columns titled Order of PMQ and Q for Order of PMQ respectively, and thus assumed to occur first (assuming it has reached critical stress) during September 06 to May 07. Item no. 17 is ranked 2 listed in “Rank” in row 2 and has already occurred on 20th August 2006.
The spike in the time between the quakes which signifies an imminent major to a great quake correlates logarithmically inversely with the number of earthquakes (See Figure LnSpkTBQ). Thus ranking of a quake region inversely as the number of quakes during a given period indicates the order in which quakes may indeed occur, assuming that the magnitude of the spike in a longitude band is a measure of its imminence in a set of longitude band slices.
The Actuals in August 2006 as on the 24th
A major earthquake occurred at 034117 UTC on the 20th as predicted. It had a magnitude of 7.1 MM and its hypocenter was
-61.011, -34.375, 10 km in Scotia Sea. See Table PMQAug06, item 18 below:
Possible dates of occurrence of major and great earthquakes worldwide.
A prognosis for the remaining part of the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007.
Date of Report: 24th August 2006.
The peak magnitude quake in August 2006 occurred on the 20th in the 18th longitude band: -40.49 to –20.5 at latitude –61 instead of the mean location for the band of –12.21, a standard deviation away. The longitude was –34.37 instead of the mean of –28.9, less than two standard deviations away. Counting the number of earthquakes in each longitude band from 1st June 2006, and entering them in the column “No. of Q’s”( as on 5th August 06), gives us a method of estimating using other data like the spike TBQ(Time between Quakes), the date of occurrence of the next major to great quake. The last column in the Table PMQAug06 indicates the order in which the peak magnitude quakes (PMQs) is predicted in the longitude bands whose serial numbers are given in the first column. In Table PMQAug06, the longitude band –40.49 to –20.5 occurs after the longitude band –20.49 to –0.5 because the predicted major quake has already occurred in the former band. This will facilitate the ranking of quakes to come in the present hydrological year.
Rank 1: By this prediction, the next PMQ would be in the longitude band No. 16, that is, -60.49 to –40.5, assuming that, even though it failed to occur till 20th August (having the least number of quakes), it would perhaps, in the remaining part of August or in September. It is possible that the critical stress after which a major or great quake occurs, is usually reached after the total number of quakes from the begin of a study period has exceeded about 200. See for example Table GMW, which exhibits data for some great and major earthquakes. This region includes Greenland, Central and Eastern South America, Falkland Isles, Scotia Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula. During the period of study, 1st June 06 to August 06 as on 5th august 06, the frequency chart shows earthquakes have occurred from Scotia Sea region, to Falkland Isles right up to Greenland. It is interesting to observe that in the region of latitude –9 to 0 in this longitude band, no quakes have occurred during the study period. This is the Amazon region.
Rank 2: Next in line would be what in the USA would perhaps be a highly studied area: Item 12 or longitude band –139.49 to –119.5 in which would fall the St. Andreas fault. The frequency chart shows prevalence of quakes right from –56 latitude to 76 latitude, again for the particular period under study(See discussion under Rank 1). The wide distribution of quakes in the various latitude ranges also holds for other ranks.
Rank 3: Then would be item 3 or longitude band 40 to 60, which includes the Rift Valley, Iran, Turkey and Armenia (Yeravan, where the nuclear plants are also situated).
Rank 4: The next: Item 17: Longitude band –20.49 to –0.5 in which would fall Morocco, Algeria, Spain, the UK including London and Iceland.
Rank 5: The next, -119.49 to –100.5 (Item 13) includes Los Angeles, and Mexico.
Rank 6: –100 to –80 which is item 14 and includes El Salvador, Mexico and the Great New Madrid Earthquakes Region.
Rank 7: Then, 7th ranked is the longitude band of the Himalayan Region, item 4, 60 to 80 which includes Pakistan (POK apart from other areas like Quetta in Pakistan), significantly more than the left half of India including the whole of South India (the region of nuclear plants), Afghanistan, and the Central Asian Republics, and the Chagos Archipelago.
Rank 8: –160 to –140: it is item 11 which includes Alaska, Honolulu and Hawaii and the French Polynesia.
Rank 9: would be item 6, longitude band 100 to 120, which includes Eastern Russia, Eastern China and Indonesia, including Sumatra and Java.
Rank 10: in order of occurrence is the longitude band 1(0 to 20) which includes Italy (Messina also included, where in 1908 a 7.0 MM major quake killed 110000 people), Albania, France, Algeria (including El Asnam where in 1980, 2590 people were killed by a 7.1 MM major quake)) and Libya.
Rank 11: the longitude band 80 to 100(Item 5) is the Indian ocean, the eastern half of India, West China and the Himalayan Region including the Sagaing fault and the Andaman and Nicobar basin where the Great 9.3 MM quake occurred on 26th December 2004 and created a huge tsunami, killing 300000 people.
Rank 12: Item 9, longitude band 160 to 180, which includes the Kamchatka Peninsula , Santa Cruz Isles, Vanuatu, Fiji and New Zealand.
Rank 13: Next: Item 8: Longitude band 140 to 160 is ranked 13 and includes North & North Central Japan(where a number of nuclear plants are) and also the Kuril Isles, and the Western Kamchatka Peninsula.
Rank 14: The 14th in line is item 7: longitude band 120 to 140 and includes East Russia, East China,Taiwan, the Philippines, West Japan including Ryukyu Islands, East Indonesia and Central part of Australia.
Rank 15: Next, rank 15, item 10, -180 to –160 includes the Kermadec Islands, the Tonga Kingdom and Rat Isles and Aleutian Isles and West Alaska.
Rank 16: is item 2, 20 to 40, includes Turkey and the Rift Valley.
Rank 17: Item 15, longitude band –80 to –60 includes the West Coast of South America, the Amazon Basin, Central America and Eastern part of North America.
These would occur mostly serially in the next 9 to 21 months. We may allow for some months in which the earth will be in a low spin mode. The question is: Which are the next low spin mode months?
The rankings for the order of occurrence of the earthquakes of peak magnitude have been tested and found to be highly significant, using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient for 20th August 2006 and 31st May 2006: R=0.67,degrees of freedom 14, p=0.0047: See Table R:
This picture may need revision as the hydrological year(s) progress(es) and more data collects.
It is sobering indeed that so many parts of the world- indeed no part excluded – have become so highly stressed that major to great earthquakes are predicted for these longitude slices. It is reasonable to suppose that there is one great cause for all these to be simultaneously affected. That is where my research on Indian Dams causing worldwide earthquakes fits in to the picture. The URL is
http://earthquakescausedbydams.blogspot.com
As pointed out in the above URL and confirmed once again by the frequencies of the various latitude ranges for all the longitude bands, the water force and moment exerted by the dam waters at the center of gravity of all the water masses of Indian dams are responsible for the surges waves of earthquakes taking place in each hydrological year. The double hump for the frequency peak for latitude ranges for all longitude slices brings out once again this chaotic cause- effect relation. See Figure FAL:
This assessment would not be complete without an examination of the frequency of quakes for all longitude ranges for all longitude bands. See Figure LoAllflong06:
It is seen that the number of earthquakes during the study period is a minimum around the longitude of the center of gravity of the water masses behind Indian dams. The maxima of the frequency occur away from this longitude. In order to generate adequate water moment the faults offering resistance to the bending moment exerted by the changing water masses should be away from this longitude. Note that the mean of the longitudes of all quakes is about 12 degrees, far away from the center of gravity, see URL on earthquakes caused by dams, reference given above.
The Prediction for August 2006
The table PPQAug06 below shows the expected locations for the major quake(s) in August 2006, assuming that the earth is not in a low spin mode during the month. Data for the period 1973 to 2006 shows a double hump for the location for many regions. See for example I have stated two expected locations for the same longitude band, -159.49 to –139.5, items 11 and 12.
The low spin mode refers to only strong quakes for the peak magnitude quakes during the month. I expect that the concerned authorities will be on the alert and be ready to guide the people to safety in advance of the occurrence. The discussion on the double humps for the other expected locations will be given soon.
Stress build up trends reveal that major to great earthquakes are due in the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007. The likely areas are in the El Salvador region defined by the longitude range –87 to -107 and the Himalayan region defined by the 73 degrees longitude in a band of 65 to 85 including Kashmir, Tehri, Chamoli and in the South extending from Bhuj to Latur, Koyna and the Chagos Archipelago. Note that the longitude band for the El Salvador Region also is the band for the Great New Madrid Earthquakes of the 19th Century(Table GNME). The other expected locations in the table for August 06 are also candidates for the peak magnitude quake in the remaining months of the hydrological year.
Analysis of Stress Build Up in the Year 2006
Compare the stress build up in the El Salvador Region during the run up to the Peak Magnitude Quake(PMQ)-the major quake of 13th January 2001- with this year’s run up till 6th June 2006 from 1st Jan 2006: The stress build up is measured by the time between successive quakes(TBQ): The TBQ is measured by the number of worldwide quakes other than those in the particular longitude band under study. See the figures below(Figures ELS2001: Time between Quakes(TBQ) and Mean Time between Quakes(MTBQ),Figures ES and ESM for 2006):
Striking similarities between the two sets of stress diagrams
The 2006 stress level is at a higher level at the commencement of the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007- 30 percent more compared to the same time during the hydrological year June 2000 to May 2001. Comparing the stress build up leading to the 7.8 MM major El Salvador quake on 13th June 2001 with the stress build up till 6th June 2006 from 1st Jan 2006, I expect that a major to a great quake is likely during the present hydrological cycle in the El Salvador Region.
Stress build up in the Longitude Range 60 to 85 during June 2006 to May 2007.
A similar analysis for the mean longitude 73 degrees in a band range of 60 to 85 shows that a major to a great quake is likely in this range during the present hydrological cycle. See stress diagrams below: Figure 8:Major Earthquake of 7.8 MM in POK on 8th Oct 2005, Figure POKM for MTBF for 2005 quake, Figure HIMA and Figure Himam for 2006:
It is revealing to see how the stress diagrams above relate to the run up to the Bhuj quake of 26th Jan 2001(Figures Bhuj and BhujAB):
The above diagrams bring out the differences in stress build up between differing longitude bands. The Bhuj quake is situated in the same longitude band as that of the 8th October POK quake illustrated above and may provide an indication of the degree of state of stress before a major to a great earthquake is due. However note that a lower number for the Great Andaman Basin quake of 26th December 2004 holds for the 9.3 MM quake. The stress levels are to be scaled in the various longitude bands to extract information in this manner of the stress level in the rock. However the Time Between Quakes(TBQ)(Figure 1: 26th December 2004) for the Andaman 9.3 MM quake also reveals a common characteristic of the run up to the peak magnitude quake:
The common characteristic is that following the Time Between Quakes (TBQ) on a real time basis yields a timely warning of an impending major or a great quake. See Table GMW : SpikeTBQ is the spike in the TBQ that occurs before the impending Peak Magnitude Quake(PMQ)- Major or Great- occurs. After the spike, the PMQ occurs days after : For the Great Andaman Basin Quake of 26th December 2004, the PMQ of 9.3 MM magnitude occurred 7 days after the SpikeTBQ; for the Nicobar Isles earthquake of 7.5 MM, it was 2days after; for the Simuele earthquake of 28th March 2005- 3 days; for the Bhuj earthquake- 5 days, for the POK quake- 6 days, for the Rift Valley (Mozambique) denoted by RVM –8 days and for the El Salvador quake of 7.8 MM on the 13th of January 2001- 14 days.
The Nature of the Forces and Bending Moments applied on faults by the Dams
The dams are preparing the ground shaking work along all latitudes for any given band of longitudes on account of their propensity to apply their effects at any location offering resistance to the bending moments. Thus see how the dams are causing earthquakes at many latitudes in the longitude range –107 to –87 in the El Salvador Region Figure ESE, Tables ELSFLat and ELSFLon, Figures ELSFLat and FLonES:
A similar picture presents for the run up to the peak magnitude quake in the Himalayan Region, for example in the longitude range 60 to 86 for the period 1st Jan 2006 to 6th June 2006 as shown in the two tables(Tables POKFLA and POKFLO) and 3 diagrams(Figures POKFLa and POKLO and POKE):
Perhaps the best picture is presented by the Great Andaman Quake of 26th Dec 2004 of the ground shaking work done by the Indian dams prior to its occurrence with a magnitude of 9. 3 MM:
Figure GABQE shows how the earthquakes in the longitude range 86 to 106 corresponding to the region of the great quake are significantly distributed over a wide band in the latitude range –90 to 90, compared to the 60 to 86 longitude band.
The frequency distribution of the latitude and the longitude of the quakes in the above diagram are given in the two frequency charts Figures ANGreatLatFreq and GANQ26thDecember2004:
The two tables, ANLF and ANLOF for the frequencies of the epicenters are revealing:
In the 60 to 106 band of longitude, the Himalayas in their territory, seem to prevent frequent earthquake occurrence beyond about 40 degrees latitude. In the 60 to 86 longitude band, the quakes are pronounced in a very narrow latitude range of 34 to 38 degrees latitude and a very narrow longitude band of 70 to 74. In the 86 to 106 longitude band the number of earthquakes surges to a peak after passing the Himalayan Range(from 93 degrees longitude) and the peak is maintained till 97 degrees longitude.
Indian dams are relentlessly applying forces and bending moments on the Himalayan fault as on others like the Sagaing fault east of the Himalayan range. This is evident from the way the resistance offered by the fault as response to the water moments is causing the faults to be stressed up(and causing earthquakes) as shown above. A snapshot of the run up to the great Andaman Basin 9.3 MM earthquake of 26th December shows the frenetic dam activity in the Himalayan Ranges (Figure GANBELR):
An alternative explanation for the 1000 km long displacement after the Great Andaman Basin Earthquake of 26th December 2004
It appears from the observations above and from those for the longitude ranges –60 to –86, 108 to 128, 128 to 148 and 137 to 157 that the regions are all being progressively simultaneously stressed up by the dams relentlessly as of 6th June 2006. It is up and up all the way. This means that the sudden zip effect after the 26th Dec 2004 great earthquake for 1000 km of the fault line explained as a consequence of plate tectonics for the 12.9 meter displacement (See December 2004 commentary below) may be supplanted by the explanation of the surge waves of actions on the faults by the dams work prior to the great Andaman Basin quake offered by me above in the light of the evidence presented here. It is the persistent surge wave of forces and bending moments applied all round the center of gravity of the water masses on the Indian subcontinent by the waters behind the dams that stressed up the fault lines, in particular in the longitude band 86 to 106, resulting in the 9.3 MM quake and the 1000 km displacement in this longitude range.
With this background I now proceed to evaluate the date and magnitude of monthly peak magnitude quakes for the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007: See Table 167(if this is blackened out visit the URL http://predictingwwquakes.rediffblogs.com and you will see it!) :
Prediction for June 2006
The prediction of the date of the peak magnitude earthquake for June 2006 is given in Table 9:
From the stress analysis developed above the most likely location for the peak magnitude earthquake for June 2006 is expected to be El Salvador region (Item 3 in Table 9).
June 2006: Actual peak magnitude earthquake
The earth went into a low spin mode in June 2006 and the peak magnitude earthquake(PMQ)-a strong earthquake of magnitude 6.4 - occurred on the 14th June 2006 at 41842.37 at 51.76,177.09 at a depth of 14 km. The region was Rat Islands, Alaska. I predicted the date for the peak magnitude quake(strong to great) to lie between 13 to 20 June. Since the expectation for the magnitude including the strong quakes was a major one, the date was taken to correspond to a major to a great quake. The pure low spin expected date was 17th and the PMQ was 6.7 MM (Moment magnitude). Whether the earth goes into a low spin or a high spin mode depends on her previous history which is a low and high spin mix of strong, major and great quakes.
The expected date for June 2006 in the table based on return period for peak magnitude quake was already “overdue”(Item 13 in Table 9).
Prediction for July
The expected date range for July 2006 from Table 167 is 16 to 22(for strong to great quakes) and the PMQ has the range 7.3 to 7.7 MM with 95% confidence.
A table (10) for prediction of date of occurrence for 28 regions is drawn as usual for July 2006:
Actuals for July 2006
On the 17th of July 2006, a major 7.7 MM magnitude quake struck in the Region 11 in Table 10. Details in Table 167 modified as of 17th July 2006. That the predictions are coming true is a grim reminder for the officialdom the world over to take notice and act. If only they had followed this method in real time, they could have alerted the people of the region days in advance and the toll of 300-350 dead and lakhs displaced, as of 18th July could have definitely been averted.
The prediction for July based on return periods shows that the PMQ is expected in any of 23 out of 28 locations studied between 16th to 22nd with 95% confidence. The most likely in July however, are El Salvador and the Himalayan regions as discussed before in the section on stress evaluation. But actually again the Indonesian Ring of Fire Region : Longitude band 86 to 108 was struck by a major 7.7 MM magnitude quake (it was overdue in this region in July 2006). Thus one should have followed in real time this region also for a spike in the TBQ and given advance warning days ahead by following my method of prediction. I had seen the steep gradient in which the stress was increasing in this region and also the spikes in the TBQ and this area should also have been stated as a candidate of choice for July 2006. So from here on I shall monitor in real time all the regions that I think are of interest( say 8 to 11 regions) from among the following: Longitude ranges: 1] 30-45;2] 45-60; 3] 60- 87; 4] 87-108; 5] 108-128; 6] 128-148; 7] 148-168; 8] 168-180; 9] –60 to –87; 10] –87to –107; 11] –107 to –127. Hopefully this type of monitoring should reduce the number of likely candidates to one or two, instead of 23 out of 28.
The development of the prediction method through the last hydrological year follows as a commentary as before. See the URL:
http://predictingquakes.rediffblogs.com
By R. Ashok Kumar, B.E.,M.E(Power),Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal,299,Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.
Copyright © 2011 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
http://predictingquakes.blogspot.com/
Author’s note: When you are accessing the URL http://predictingquakes.blogspot.com/ please click on the blackened/blank but bordered figures/tables and if necessary, expand the same to view them.
Latest News
4th November 2009
A strong earthquake occurred in Japan on 30th October 2009:
6.8 2009/10/30 07:03:40 29.192 129.877 35.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Here also the location was precisely predicted by the mean of historical monthly peak magnitude quakes in the 120-140 longitude band(Take the mean of quakes in the 120-140 longitude band for the 30-50 and 0-30 (items 4 and 5) latitude bands in Table PMQHMM7308:
As shown by the Chi-square distribution for the expected and observed values, the historical mean is identical to the observed mean,p=87.3 percent(one tailed probability).
In a business as usual mindset the past becomes the future!
25th October 2009
A major earthquake on the 24th of October 2009:
| 7.0 | 2009/10/24 14:40:45 | -6.161 | 130.346 | 138.5 | BANDA SEA |
Looking at the historical mean for the monthly peak magnitude earthquakes 1973-2008 in Table PMQHMM7308 for the longitude band 120 to 140 in latitude band 0 to -30 the data is
Number of peak magnitude earthquakes: 27;
Mean Latitude: -4.96; Mean Longitude: 129.6;Mean Magnitude: 7.675 MM;
Mean Depth: 80.9 km(28km for 23 earthquakes,308 km for 4 earthquakes).
The lesson that this prediction again and again is staring the specialists who are ignoring my work which is presumably peerless(why don't you review this significant work(!), if you had the guts to be good in thought, word and deed??) is that the past becomes the future in a business as usual way of life. The location and other data like brightness and time of detection of fires, read hotspots between 23rd to 25th October 2009 by the Web Fire Mapper are shown in Table FIRES NEAR BANDA SEA below:
TABLE FIRES NEAR BANDA SEA 23 to 25 October 2009.
| ||||||||||||||
[ONLY TOP 5 RESULTS ARE SHOWN.]
| ||||||||||||||
Latitude
|
Longitude
|
Date
|
Time
|
Brightness
|
Confidence
|
Scan
|
Track
|
Satellite
|
Version
|
Bright.T31
|
FRP
| |||
-5.923
|
132.693
|
2009-10-23
|
319.3
|
54
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
A
|
5.0
|
304.8
|
12.8
| ||||
-5.922
|
132.702
|
2009-10-23
|
329.1
|
82
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
A
|
5.0
|
304.5
|
26.4
| ||||
-5.93
|
132.7
|
2009-10-23
|
324.0
|
0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
A
|
5.0
|
305.8
|
18.5
| ||||
-7.295
|
131.614
|
2009-10-23
|
322.2
|
59
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
A
|
5.0
|
300.3
|
19.4
| ||||
-7.733
|
131.454
|
2009-10-23
|
315.1
|
60
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
A
|
5.0
|
299.3
|
12.6
| ||||
See how tropical cyclone Lupit has been struggling snaking around the 130 longitude band where the Major Quakein Banda Sea was taking shape!
The dominant reason is the dam: The India dams with the center of gravity of the water masses stored behind them at 23,78.75 and the China dams, center of gravity at 24.734, 111.96 and the joint center of gravity of India-China dams at 24.738, 102.1527.
THE PAST BECOMES THE FUTURE!
A series of shallow major earthquakes struck the 160-180 longitude band in the -30 to 0 latitude range with a peak of 7.8 MM at Vanuatu:
| 7.0 | 2009/10/08 08:28:49 | -13.298 | 165.951 | 35.0 | VANUATU |
| 7.3 | 2009/10/07 23:13:49 | -13.145 | 166.297 | 33.3 | VANUATU | |
| MAP | 7.7 | 2009/10/07 22:18:26 | -12.554 | 166.320 | 35.0 | SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS |
| 7.8 | 2009/10/07 22:03:16 | -13.052 | 166.187 | 35.0 | VANUATU |
As on 10th August 2009, the stress table indicated the 160-180 longitude band as the 4th most stressed, with the next major earthquake having a magnitude of 7.86 MM, the mean for the earthquakes between 1.1.2008 to 10th August 2009 being at -13.95, 171.3. The historical monthly mean for the peak magnitude earthquake in the latitude band -30 to 0 in this longitude band is: -16.22,167.46,7.5MM,41.4km. The past becomes the future!
4th October 2009
A strong earthquake occurred on 4th October 2009 in Phillippines:
| 6.6 | 2009/10/04 10:58:01 | 6.721 | 123.480 | 630.5 | MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES |
7.75,127.25,Depth approx 80 km and at this earthquake epicenter very nearly.
See the image below:
See the interconnection?
3 October 2009
A strong earthquake occurred in Taiwan on the 3rd of October 2009:
| 6.1 | 2009/10/03 17:36:05 | 23.635 | 121.565 | 17.5 | TAIWAN |
The historicam mean of the monthly peak magnitude earthquake is(from Table PMQHMM7308):
22.4,122.1,7.7 MM, Shallow.
The past becomes the future! Time and again!
The disaster prevention groups all over the world should really get their acts together!
30 September 2009
On 30th September 2009 a major earthquake occurred in Southern Sumatra:
| 7.6 | 2009/09/30 10:16:10 | -0.789 | 99.961 | 80.0 | SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA |
This longitude band,80-100, is ranked sixth in the stress table for 10th August 2009 and and looking at the satellite picture of the India Meteorological Department below for 1 October 2009,0530 UTC it stands to reason that this occurred on 30th September 2009 after the great earthquake in the Samova Islands Region on 29th September 2009 because of the surge wave of water pressure heads at the centers of gravity of water masses behind dams. Compare with the historical monthly mean for the Peak Magnitude earthquake:
Lat -0.94,Long 94.12,Mag 7.5MM,Depth 32.5 km.
29th September 2009
A shallow great earthquake which caused a disastrous tsunami (at least 100 deaths so far)occurred in the Samova Islands Region on 29th September 29 2009:
| 8.0 | 2009/09/29 17:48:11 | -15.558 | -172.073 | 18.0 | SAMOA ISLANDS REGION |
My table for the historical mean monthly peak magnitude earthquake has the following entry for the latitude band 0 to -30 in the longitude band -180 to -160:
Lat -20.7686,Long -175.71, Mag 7.7 MM,Depth 146.26.
One must as usual gasp and say, the past becomes the future but what a shallow depthy one! And therefore so much destructive that a simultaneous catastrophe of a tsumani occurred.
The India Meterological Department data for September 29 2009 at 0730 UTC all India rains is:
The data for all India rains for the 2009 south west monsoon season as on 30th September 2009 is:
NOTICE THE SURGE OF ALL-INDIA RAINS FROM 27th September 2009 to 30th September 2009?
The comments below for 7th September 2009 that dams are causing such phenomena is being scientifically reconfirmed time and again!
Its the extravagant electricity demands causing the need for huge dams that overlooked the sum total of surges of bending stresses and forces applied across faults that are repeatedly causing these man made natural catastrophes. When will the world community wake up to this lacuna in design and cause new ways of living? Hope the world community wakes up NOW to my scientific findings instead of ignoring them. The Love waves followed by the Rayleighs along the earth's crust!
21st September 2009
A strong earthquake occurred in Bhutan on 21 September 2009:
| 2009/09/21 08:53:06 | 27.32N | 91.42E | 14 | 6.1 | BHUTAN |
widely felt in
Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, northern parts of West Bengal, Bihar, parts of other
eastern regions of India, Nepal and Bangladesh.
The hotspot for 10th August 2009(Table SBU10Aug2009) which is also the mean of all earthquakes from 1.1.2008 till 10th August 2009 is at 19.49,91.48 at a depth of 27 km.
13th September 2009
A strong earthquake occurred offshore Venezeula on 12th September 2009 as anticipated by the mean of historical measurements in the longitude band -80 to -60(1973 to 2008):
Magnitude 6.4 MM
Date and time 2009/09/12 20:06:25
Latitude 10.757
Longitude -67.847
Depth 10.0 km
Region OFFSHORE ARAGUA, VENEZUELA
See Table HM below, Rank No 11 for the historical mean location of the monthly peak magnitude earthquake:
Latitude 8.36
Longitude -73.298
Depth 19.4 km
The earthquake occurred at a hotspot cluster in this longitude band as is evident from the screen shot of the Web Fire Mapper under News for 2nd September 2009 below.
7th September 2009
A strong shallow earthquake occurred on 7th September 2009 South of Java Indonesia. Again this was preceded by heavy rain on the Indian Subcontinent:
| 6.1 | 2009/09/07 16:12:22 | -10.202 | 110.609 | 15.9 | SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA |
Figure 2009SWM: India: South West Monsoon 2009, Source India Meterological Department.http://www.imd.gov.in
About six hours later another strong shallow earthquake occurred in the longitude band 40-60 in Georgia on the other side of the centre of gravity of dams in India:
| 6.2 | 2009/09/07 22:41:37 | 42.712 | 43.483 | 10.0 | GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO) |
Both these strong earthquakes are located in persisting hotspot clusters. See hotspot map of FIRMS,University of Maryland as shown below(2nd September 2009). These hotspots are created by the surges of huge water pressure head changes of tens to hundreds of km/sec at the centers of gravity of water masses behind heavily dammed regions like India, China, USA, Koreas,Japan, Europe,South America and Africa. The correlation is seen clearly deterministically for Indian and Chinese dams during the South West Monsoon as brought out here.
2nd September 2009
A major 7.0 MM earthquake occurred in Java:
Update time = Wed Sep 2 8:40:00 UTC 2009
| MAG | UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s | LAT deg | LON deg | DEPTH km | Region | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAP | 7.0 | 2009/09/02 07:55:02 | -7.770 | 107.324 | 49.5 | JAVA, INDONESIA |
Lat -7.4 long 107.533 Magnitude 8MM depth 33.4 km. The prediction from Table 0910 below has therefore been accurate. The mean date has a range from 11th to 18th. But a huge surge in rainfall during the monsoon 0n the 31st of August 2009 updates the average picture: see the mean daily rainfall data for India for the South West Monsoon 2009:
This rainfall surge translated into a surge of water pressure
head change at the center of gravity of the reservoir water
masses on the Indian Subcontinent and a similar head
change at the centre of gravity of those in China,Korea
and Japan resulting in a surge of Love and Raleigh waves
throughout the fault lines at the crust of the earth from
the Sagaing fault into the Indonesian arc resulting in
the shallow quake at almost the same historical mean
location for the latitude range -30 to 0 in the longitude
band 100-120.
See how the Indonesian Ring of Fire has been
experiencing constant rubbing on the two sides
of the fault line generating hotspots and earthquakes:
14 August 2009
Prediction using USGS data base prior to the 7.6 MM major earthquake just north of Andaman Nicobar Isles Region on 10th August 2009.
Heavy Rains on 26th July in India and China caused a swarm of earthquakes to appear in the Andaman Nicobar Islands Region:
I immediately sent out a message to andamanicobar@yahoogroups.com and to waterwatch@yahoogroups.com indicating that a major
The stress Table SBU10Aug2009 is :
The historical data for these 18 longitude bands for the monthly peak magnitude earthquake is:
It is once again to be seen that the 7.6 MM quake did indeed occur in the region as my prediction expected(7.7 MM), see Sr No 6 in Table SBUAug102009,mean location 19.48,91.08,the actual location being 14.013,92.923. The historical mean is 7.23,96.62. With further heavy rains predicted by IMD in the coming days for India and China also being in the grip of the monsoon(15-20 rainy days in many provinces for August) further major quakes may be due in the coming weeks. Note that some 1500 MW of additional hydro capacity has come into operation in the current year in India alone. The rains in India for the current monsoon so far has been as follows:
Source India Metereological Department: http://www.imd.gov.in/Earthquakes, strong to major has followed each of the rain surges. This is the norm.
Actual and Predicted date, magnitude and location for the peak magnitude earthquake for July 2009
The 7.7 MM major quake at South Island New Zealand on 15th July 2009 was as expected. The history for the –30 to –50 latitude band in the 160 to 180 longitude band is
Latitude, Longitude, magnitude MM,depth(km):
The actual data is : Date,Time, Latitude, Longitude, magnitude MM,depth(km):
Note the surge in All India rains 14th to 17th July 2009. China had very heavy rains with storms during this period. The heavy impulse surge of 50-100 km/sec(Ten to Twenty Mount Everest heights) in the water pressure head at the center of gravity of the India China combine of dams translate into deadly Love and Raleigh waves of strong and major earthquakes traveling the crust of the earth wreaking hurricanes by heating up at faults and causing the Kosi fan tragedy, the Taiwan tragedy(Typhoon Murakot) and the China disaster causing millions to flee like rats and much more to come in an all too predictable determinism. In fact the hurricanes follow the earthquake hotspots and the hurricane path can be predicted and in turn the on coming quake can be predicted to occur in the path of the hurricane (See for example 10W-09 and the major Izu quake):
Note: The image is from the NOAA website while the 7.1 Izu quake location and legend has been added by the author.11th July 2009
Predictions for July 2009 for the Location of the Peak Magnitude Earthquake
The ranges for the magnitude and the date of the peak magnitude occurrence have already been estimated:
7.3 MM to 7.7 MM and July 16 to 22(Table 0910).
The ranks for the earthquakes in decreasing order of the rate of stress build up in the 18 longitude bands for July 2009 are in Table SBUJuly92009 below. The dynamics of the locations of the hotspots are compared with the means of the locations of the earthquakes in the 18 longitude bands between 1.1.2008 and 8th July 2009. These are contrasted with those of the historical mean locations of the monthly peak magnitude earthquakes. These dynamics are captured in Figure 23.
Prediction and Actuals for June 2009
June 2009 was a low low spin month! The eight strong earthquakes had a total seismic moment whose equivalent moment magnitude was 6.9 MM. All the earthquakes together in June 2009 had a Seismic Moment Sum whose equivalent moment magnitude was 7.0. This is near the predicted lower limit of 7.1 MM. See discussion under April 2009.
19 June 2009
As there is a major hotspot swarm in the 0-20 and 20-40 longitude bands with more than 6000 hotspots(see Figure HA2June09) we must be alert regarding these two longitude bands for a possible major earthquake in June.
7th June 2009
Prediction for June 2009 to May 2010
The following Table 0910 predicts the magnitude and date of the monthly peak magnitude earthquake(PMQ) for the hydrological year June 2009 to May 2010:
The details for the Prediction for the Month of June 2009 are given in Table SBU31May09:
This data is captured in Figure HA2June09 which reveals interesting facts of the prediction characteristics:
The curve of the mean epicenters worldwide is a signature of the daily electric load demand worldwide. So is the daily hotspot curve(Join the yellow diamonds in the graph).
The hotspots are a result of the rubbing on two sides of the faults in each longitude band. And the rubbing is caused by the hydrogenerator demand on the waters behind dams resulting in surges of changes in water pressure heads at the centers of gravity of water masses behind the world’s dams. This unchanging characteristic of demand results in practically unchanging loci of epicenters-both predicted and historical year after year. The past actions determine the future! The picture for May 2009 is similar as can be observed. A commentary on the performance of predictions for the past hydrological year follows.
An assessment of the Prediction and Actual for Earthquakes in the Hydrological Year 2008-09.The following Table details the evaluation data:
The Table AEJune2008May2009 shows that the past predicts the future deterministically (because of the dams) as captured graphically in Figure 20:
The Table also brings out that when the earth goes into low spin allowing only strong earthquakes, the sum of the seismic moments of the strong earthquakes for each low spin month equals that of a major earthquake, because of the way the magnitudes of peak magnitude earthquakes are predicted. The Seismic Moment predicted for the Peak Magnitude Quake in any month is either for a single major earthquake or for the sum of seismic moments of strong earthquakes totaling to that of a major quake.
Diary for the Hydrological Year 2008-2009.
The predictions for 2008-2009:
Note : In the above Table the colour coded column indicating the rank in order of probability of occurrence is for the expected earthquake for June 2008 only. Please disregard the colour code for this purpose.
30th May 2009
A major earthquake occurred on 28th May 2009 off the coast of Honduras adjacent to the area in Mexico hit by swine flu:
Magnitude 7.3 MM Date 2009/05/28 Time 08:24:46 Latitude 16.730 Longitude -86.209 Depth km 10 Region Offshore Honduras
As shown in Figure 19 under 10th May 2009 below, the location is close to the historical mean for location of monthly peak magnitude quakes(Table PMQHMM7308 below,Sr. No. 7,longitude band -100 to -80,Latitude band 0 to 30) as well as to the hotspot mean derived from hotspot data from the Web Fire Mapper of FIRMS for 10th May 2009. See also Table SBU9May2009 below. The past becomes indeed the future when habits According to Mahatma Gandhi who stated unequivocally at the begin of the last century:
"The West must throw overboard almost the whole of modern civilisation, if the East is to meet the West; the West can also meet the East if the East embraced modern civilisation; but that will be an armed truce."
The specialist society is characterised by the fact that it does not know. And it does not know that it does not know. Thats the definition of a fool. And fools must be shunned. Wendell Berry brought this out also by his contempt for a society ruled by specialists with the following true statement of fact:
"In living in this world by his own will and skill, the stupidest peasant or tribesman is more competent than the most intelligent worker or technician or intellectual in a society of specialists."(In The Unsettling of America: Culture and Agriculture.Sierra Club Books/Avon. 1975/1980).
The Brazilian President has stated similarly about modern civilisation's actors.
Will democracy flourish by dire need through the valiant resistance of others who see the truth?
10th May 2009
Prediction for May 2009.
The expected peak magnitude earthquake is a major one as shown in Table 6869-Magnitude 7.3 to 7.7; date between 13th to 20th May 2009. The expected location bears the ranking for the various longitude bands as shown in Figure 19 and Table SBU9May2009 below(The ranks are for changes in stress as per data on 9th May 2009):
Nomenclature: MaxRSBU: Maximum Rate of Stress Build Up; SSM: Sum of Seismic Moments;QN: Number of Earthquakes; MeanTime: Mean of time of occurrence of quake;MeanLat: Mean of Latitude of Earthquakes;MeanLon: Mean of Longitude of quakes;MMM: Mean Magnitude of quakes;MD: Mean Depth of quakes; SSMEQMM: Magnitude equivalent to SSM;MSM: Mean of Seismic Moments; LogSSM: Log to base 10 of SSM.
The correlation between Mean earthquake epicenters of each longitude band(1.1.2008 to 9th May 2009), the nearest monthly peak magnitude mean location for the history of earthquake peaks(1973 to 2008) for each longitude band and the location of hotspot means for each longitude band for a single day-10th May 2009 is deterministic, not merely statistically significant.This is possible because the phenomena are being caused year after year by a single forcing function- the persistent changes in electrical load demand and other consumptive uses of water from the dams as well as the dam filling activity during the monsoons and during snow melting. A pictorial guide to this phenomenon is shown in Figure 19. The hotspots are from data base for 10th May 2009 of Fire Information Management System, Web Fire Mapper: http://maps.geog.umd.edu/firms/maps.asp
Prediction and Actuals for April 2009.
In April 2009 the earth went into a low spin mode(Table 1). The peak magnitude earthquake was 6.9 MM on 7th April. The total Seismic Moment of all these strong earthquakes(10 nos) was 5.74E19 Nm corresponding to 7.2 MM magnitude earthquake. The locations of the peak magnitude earthquake and the other strong ones are close to the historical mean locations of the peak magnitude quakes(PMQs). See Table PMQHMM7308 below. A major quake predicted for April split itself as it were into ten strong quakes.
17th April 2009, 0100 UTC
Cyclone Bijli 09 is pointing towards the intense hotspot around 20, 103. Watch out for quakes in this longitude band!
12th April 2009
A cluster of earthquakes during the last month from 12th April 2009 around the hotspot mean from 1.1.1973 to 12th April 2009 for the longitude band 120 to 140 shows that the Kepulauan Talaud Region is a probable region for the peak magnitude earthquake. This therefore requires close monitoring. The fires in the longitude band 120-140 on 11th April 2009 have a mean hotspot location of of 29.1, 118.5.
Together with the hotspot mean information as provided by the historical data for earthquakes and the Global Fire Data as on 11th April 2009, it is possible to infer that the 120-140 longitude band is experiencing intense rubbing due to bending moment applied by the water head surges at the world’s dams initiated by electrical load demand on the hydrogenerators.
Because of the cluster of quakes mentioned above in the Kepulauan Talaud area, we estimate that the 120-140 longitude band may experience the peak magnitude earthquake between 13th April to 19th April 2009.
See Table below:
11 April 2009
At 1700 hrs UTC an intense heat build up has been noticed in the 28-53 longitude band. Thus the 20-40 longitude band is also in the reckoning for the occurrence of the peak magnitude earthquake.
0700 hrs UTC.
Considering the intense heat build up in the longitude band 90 to 100, with an average stress build up of 0.017 as SSM(Seismic Moment Sum) between 1/1/2008 till 9th April 2009, the 80-100 longitude band becomes a prime candidate for the peak magnitude earthquake along with the others notified on 9 April 2009. This intense heat build up is visible in the Global Web Fire Mapper at http://maps.geog.umd.edu/firms(NASA/University of Maryland, 2002. MODIS Hotspot / Active Fire Detections. Data set. MODIS Rapid Response Project, NASA/GSFC [producer], University of Maryland, Fire Information for Resource Management System [distributors]. )
9 April 2009
Prediction for April 2009.
As shown in the Table SGU9APR09, considering the rates of Stress Build up, the longitude bands -180 to –160,140-160,120-140, -20 to 0, 0 to 20, -100 to –80, 40-60, 60-80 are the expected locations for the peak magnitude earthquake between 13th to 19th April , the expected magnitude being between 7.1 to 7.6 with a central value 7.5 MM. The mean hotspots are given and from Table PMQHMM7308 for historical means, the latitudes for peak magnitude quakes historically may be seen for the various latitude bands. The mean latitude and the mean longitude for the various longitude bands are the mean hotspot locations during the period considered.
8th March 2009
The heat build up shows that in addition to the longitude bands notified on 25th February 2009, the longitude bands 100-120 and 80-100 are also in the reckoning for the occurrence of the Peak magnitude Quake(PMQ) during March 2009. The latitude and longitude of the hotspots(MLat and MLong) shown in Table SBU2322009 for these longitude bands are the expected locations for these. These are 19.68,106 and 20.51,90.82 respectively.
25th February 2009.
BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH
The peak magnitude earthquake for March 2009 is expected to be in the range 7MM to 8.1MM with a mean of 7.8MM and would occur between 12th to 18th (Mean: ides of March)(Table 6869 above). The Stress Table corresponding to this is SBU2322009 (Legend in Table FO9P in the 15Feb 2009 narration below): This is derived from Earthquake Search data from USGS data base as on 23rd February 2009.
Using information on the trend of Stress Change, the most likely longitude bands in order of descending stress change between 25th February and 12th March for the Peak magnitude earthquake (PMQ) to occur are 120 to 140,140 to 160,160 to 180 and –180 to –160. The likely latitudes in these longitude bands for the PMQ are respectively
Beware the March ides!
Please proactive managers
Look for omnicide!
Genpatsu-Shinsai!
Simultan quake nuke meltdown
We are underlings!15th February 2009.As predicted in Table 6869 prepared in May 2008, the peak magnitude earthquake, a major earthquake of magnitude 7.2 MM occurred on 11th February 2009 at 3.9,126.4 at a depth of 20 km( in the expected latitude band 0-30 and Longitude Band 120-140 as shown below). As per stress build up before the earthquake (USGS data as on 12 February 2009 for quakes till 10th February 2009), Stress Table 12F09P shows that the earthquake in this longitude band has rank 4 in descending order of stress build up till 10th February 2009. However the trend shows that 120-140 longitude band has the greatest stress change compared to all the other longitude bands. See Figure 1 below. A similar procedure for January Peak Magnitude Earthquake yields the peak to have the greatest stress change in the same longitude band in January 2009, which indeed happened (See narration for January 2009). The location is close to the historical mean as in Table PMQHMM7308, item 9, row for Latitude range 0-30(1): 1.5225,125.08.
Significant Correlations of Epicenters of Earthquakes with Flood and Fire Centroids.
Table of floods and Bush Fire and their genesis in Earthquakes,
Table QBEF shows that the earthquakes determine deterministically the floods, the hurricanes and the Bush Fires as also depicted in the Figure QFGFFeb2009 above. In Table QBEF,O stands for Observed and E for Expected.
The earthquakes are predominantly caused worldwide deterministically by the enormous number of dams worldwide. See
http://damsquakeskosirivershifts.blogspot.com/Two major earthquakes occurred on the 3rd of January 2009:1. Magnitude 7.6 MM: At 194355,Latitude: -0.51,Longitude 132.783, Depth 35 km;Location:Near the North Coast of Papua Indonesia;
2. Magnitude 7.3 MM: At 223342,Latitude: -0.695,Longitude 133.279,Depth 35km;Location: Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia.
The historical mean for the -30 to 0 latitude band and 120-140 longitude band is:Latitude -4.96,Longitude 129.6, Depth 28 km, Magnitude 7.675 MM (23 peak magnitude shallow earthquakes between 1973 and 2008), see Table PMQHMM7308 here in this compendium.
The prediction for January 2009 is given in Table 6869 above: 7 to 7.7 MM, central tendency of 7.5 MM expected between 10th to 16th January 2009.The prediction is accurate to within 6-7 days and the magnitude is within the predicted range. The actual location is reasonably close to the historical mean for the latitude and longitude range in which it has occurred.
The conclusion is again confirmed that this prediction method is invaluable for mitigation of consequences of the disaster for proactive action by nations. This also gives further scientific evidence for the unequivocal proof that earthquakes are also being caused by the world's man made dams, probably one of the major causes.
As usual we shall monitor till end of the month. December 9th 2008A major earthquake occurred at Kermadec Isles as reported by USGS on 9th December 2008:
Compare this with my prediction on 30th November 2008 given below. Lets wait till the end of the month for other developments if any.
30th November 2008
The ranking in order of probability of the expected location for the peak magnitude earthquake (7.1 to 8.7 MM between 14th to 21st December 2008) is shown in Figure Dec08PMQ:
The corresponding Table SBU291108 follows:
Under nomenclature please read SSM as Seismic Moment Sum.
Peak Magnitude Earthquake for November 2008
The actual Peak Magnitude Earthquake for November 2008 occurred on 16th November :
The latitude and longitude have been indicated twice above for Excel calculations and has no significance here.
13th November 2008
The expected location for the peak magnitude earthquake (7.2 to 7.9 MM between 15th to 21st November 2008) is shown in Figure 111108 as of 11/11/2008:
The numbers indicate the rank in order of probability of occurrence at the particular location. The mean hotspot is the mean of the epicentres of all the earthquakes in the particular longitude band that occurred between 1/1/2007 to 11/11/2008 as given by the USGS database on 11/11/2008 under Search EQ database.The corresponding Table 1111081107 appears below Figure111108:
12th October 2008
Prediction for October 2008
The predicted dates and magnitudes for October 2008 are shown in Table 6869. The ranks of the various longitude bands in decreasing order of probability of earthquake occurrence are shown in the map below(Figure PROCT2008). Note that the earthquakes are all expected to be shallow even though they are shown red instead of brown.
The stresses in the various longitude bands for October 2008 are as in Table SBU81008 as of 8/10/2008.
The Actuals and Predicted Earthquakes for September 2008:
The actual earthquakes and the predicted ones compare favourably as shown below(cf Table 2908A):
4th September 2008
The prediction and actuals for August 2008The peak magnitude earthquake for August 2008 occurred on 25/8/2008 in Western Xizang of magnitude 6.7MM as detailed below:
It is a shallow hypocenter. The August predictions ranked this earthquake at No.4 See Table Ason7808 below under 7th August 2008. The predicted location according to Table PMQHMM7308 is a historical mean of 35.49, 86.42 at a mean depth of 22km. Luckily it happened at a sparsely populated area. Since the earth went into a low spin mode in August 2008, the peak magnitude earthquake was only a strong one, not a major earthquake. 25th July is seven days later than the upper limit of 19/8/08 of my prediction. But the range of the date of occurrence of PMQ and of its magnitude is a mean historical value and therefore appropriate to the mean rainfall rather than the present hydrological year’s. That’s why because the 19th -20th of August recorded one of the lowest values of daily rains for August 2008, the PMQ did not occur on this date. Rather on the 25th when the 25th-26th rain registered a larger kick compared to that of the 19th - 20th. Also the heat developed in the 80-100 longitude band was strong enough for this magnitude of earthquake to occur. Nuri-08 pointed towards this hot spot a week earlier. See Figures below:
The Prediction of the location of the peak magnitude earthquake for September 2008
The stress per unit earthquake in the various longitude bands gave the following rankings for the peak magnitude earthquake for September 2008:
In this table, MSMRANK is the rank according to the stress per unit quake in the various longitude bands; MSM is the stress per unit quake, QN is the number of earthquakes from 1/6/2007 to 2/9/2008 as recorded on 2/9/2008;QNTotal is the total number of earthquakes in all the longitude bands; Mlat is the mean of the latitudes of all the earthquakes in each latitude band during 1/6/2007 to 2/9/2008 as on 2/9/2008; Mlong is mean of the longitudes of all the quakes in a longitude band during the same period; SSMEQMM is the equivalent magnitude in MM units of the sum of the seismic moments of all earthquakes in a longitude band; MMM is the mean moment magnitude of the quakes in a longitude band in the same period and MD is the mean depth(km) of the quakes in a longitude band in the given period.
The historical mean locations for the peak magnitude quakes various longitude bands are given in Table PMQHMM7308(rearranged according to the rank as on 2/9/08).
Estimates for the date and location of some earthquakes are possible on the basis of ongoing storms as noted in
http://damsequakescyclones.blogspot.com/The current storms are those in the Atlantic and likely locations of the earthquakes to occur are in the New Madrid Great earthquake Region, 36.6,-89.6; Oregon region(44,-115.8) and Off the coast of Oregon(46.,-125.8). Of course the locations for the ranks in the Table SBU2908 may be judged from Table PMQHMM7308 above. The expected dates range from 10/9/2008 to 17/9/2008 (Table 6869).
By combining the two tables SBU2908 and PMQHMM7308 we put part of the information on prediction of earthquakes together:
Table SBU2908A(cont’d):
End of Table SBU2908A.
How was data for monthly mean peak magnitude earthquake parameters from June 1973 to May 2008 obtained? See Table lB1001207308 which was prepared for longitude band 100-120 from 1/6/1973 to 31/5/2008:
The saga of Katrina: All hot spots for the generation of storms are generated by earthquakes.
Katrina was born near a hot spot(1), went towards another hot spot(2), hit New Orleans and then veered back pointing straight towards another hot spot(3). See the Figure HSK05. All the hot spots were generated by earthquakes. For example, hot spot 3 in Figure HSK05 is generated by 37 earthquakes. Its epicenter is
(47.83, -72.38), the heat generated is that equivalent to a 4.9 MM magnitude earthquake as measured by the sum of the seismic moments of all the 37 earthquakes. The average magnitude is 3 MM. Its mean depth is 11.96 km and the mean seismic moment is 9.2E-05.
7th August 2008
The expected locations are marked in Figure RA(As of 7th August 2008):
For monitoring, it is necessary to refer to Table PMQHMM7308 for the mean historical locations apart from those in Figure RA(As of 7th August 2008). It may be noted that the first rank is corresponding to the neighbourhood of the Sichuan quake of 12th May 2008. The rankings are radically different from those given on 31st July 2008 which assumed that the overall stress governs all longitude bands.
31st July 2008
Because of the heavy rains in July 2008 much higher than normal on July 27th-28th, it is possible that the peak magnitude earthquake for August may occur earlier than expected (See Table 6869). The stress table giving the ranking for August is (Table RA):
These are entered in the map below(Figure RA):
The history Mean hot spots for 17 longitude bands are as shown in the following extended table (PMQHMM7308): For the 18th longitude band, -60 to -40 the hot spot may be read off from Table RA for the present.
It is notable that the ranking is so radically different from that obtained as of 9th July 2008!
Prediction and actual for July 2008.
As predicted a major 7MM shallow earthquake occurred on 19th July:2008,07,19,023928.70, 37.55, 142.21,7.0, 22
The location corresponded closely to one of the mean hot spots for 140-160 longitude band(42,146).Another way to look at the correctness of the location is to look at the 30-50 latitude hot spot for the neighbouring longitude band 120-140(37,136). Both are shallow. See Table PMQHMM7308 above. Thus all the predicted parameters were close to the actual.
28th July 2008
There has been the heaviest All-India rainfall for the season 2008-09 so far :
The above graph appears at http://www.imdpune.gov.in/mons_monitor/all-India.gifProvided the earth does not go into a low spin mode, a major earthquake may occur in the coming days. The probable locations are given in Table ELPMQJUL08A below. Considering the cyclone Fung-Wong's path, the heat production in the fault lines indicates that the quake may occur in the 100-120 longitude band at around the historical mean for 100-120 band indicated in the above Table. See the URL:
http://damsequakescyclones.blogspot.com/ for the plausibility.
It may be seen from this graph how the major quakes have all occurred after heavy all-India rains during June-July 2008. See comments below.
19th July 2008
A major 7.0 MM shallow earthquake occured at 37.615 deg latitude, 142.115 deg longitude at a depth of 27km on 19th July 2008. The prediction was 140 to 160 longitude band ranked third for July as a whole. One of the past data for peak magnitude earthquakes(PMQs) is a historical mean of 41.96,145.98,also a shallow earthquake(Table PMQHMM7308 below). It is interesting that this pattern has occurred before. See the data on PMQ for June. Also compare this quake of today with the PMQ for June and note the closeness. Also note that a deep focus earthquake of 7.7 MM occurred on the 5th of July 2008 in the 140-160 band and now a shallow one. There was heavy All India rain on the 17th July preceding the July 19th 2008 quake. The predominantly North India rains so far has caused latitude range 30-50 to be the location of major earthquakes this monsoon. A majority of earthquakes in the damage causing range have been in this latitude range during the current monsoon.
13th July 2008
The Table 6869 above gives the prediction of date and magnitude of the monthly peak magnitude earthquakes during June 2008 to May 2009.
Prediction and the Actual for June 2008
During June 2008, a major earthquake occurred on the 13th as follows:
The Japanese authorities modified the magnitude of the earthquake to be 7.2 MM, in contrast to the USGS estimate of 6.9 MM. The expected location on the basis of the historical mean is
The expected range for magnitude and date of the peak magnitude earthquake is given in Table 6869 above. The expected location for the peak magnitude earthquake is detailed in the following Table ELPMQJUL08A:
The most probable location is Rank 1 which is 160 to 180 longitude band and expected location being the Macquarie Ridge based on the maximum specific stress at the location for the probability of the number of earthquakes at the specified longitude band. A major but deep earthquake(633 km deep) of 7.7 MM
in the Sea of Okhotsk occurred on 5th July 2008 after heavy all India rains on 30th June 2008 much above the average all India daily rain:
The prediction for the hydrological year June 2008 to May 2009 is given in the following Table 6859: The ranking for the most possible location for the peak magnitude earthquake in June 2008 is also given. Will the earth go into low spin mode in June 2008?
The prediction for the latitude for the first rank longitude band 120-140 is either the 0-30 or 30-50 latitude band.
The expected locations are indicated in yellow in the following Table for all the twelve ranks(if there are more than one location for a given rank, the quake may occur in one of them of course):The figures in brackets are the number of peak magnitude earthquakes for the concerned variable.
Assessment of the performance of prediction for 2007-08
The following Table summarises the actuals and the predicted values of peak earthquake magnitude, date of occurrence and the location for the hydrological year 2007-8:
How do you rate the prediction? You think it would help administrators of proactive disaster management and also planners?A GREAT PRINCIPLE OF NATURE
Note that a great principle of nature is seen in the above table(PA78): That nature remembers the past and that mean of the past peak magnitude earthquake locations becomes the future earthquake location. This is demonstrated in the table by the probability of the Chi-square sum:0.49. The earth is living and has memory. The vedas which are having no begin and no end- the vibrations tell of the behaviour of the being- being guided by past actions! And when the earthquakes are caused predominantly by a major cause-Indian dams- because of the peculiarity of the Indian monsoon and the ubiquituous presence of the storage reservoirs on the Indian subcontinent, the behaviour will be repeated hydrological year after hydrological year. Will 2008-09 be different?
12th May 2008
A major earthquake occurred on 12th May in East Sichuan, China killing children in a school at 1425:
The history nearest this area is as follows for peak magnitudes earthquakes in a month(Table PMQ80100):
From this table, the nearest hypocenter previous to the present is 22.79,99.61,17km(Magnitude 7.6 MM).
The magnitude 7.9 MM is beyond the extremum of my prediction of 7.3 to 7.7 MM(after three revisions,7.5,7.8 and then 7.9). The date about less than 18 hrs off from the expected minimum date of 13th May 2008. The location is reasonably near the nearest historical location and is shallower. An enterprising proactive strategy to go by my prediction setting off a few precautionary days before the expected date, say 9th May and in the expected first five or six ranked longitude bands and at the historical locations + or – a few degrees up or down to be alert like a hungry tiger on the prowl. If one had been cavalier enough to accept that 100-120 long band would be the first rank(including the swarm ratio its indeed so) , they would have evacuated the hapless people away to say various sanctuaries in China and retuned after the day to help. If people had been enterprising enough to kill and maim future generations with atmospheric nuke tests can they not also be vastly more creative. As Wendell Berry says, in its difficulty lies its possibility. I have relooked at Table 11007 created specifically for October 2007 and have added some sets which were disregarded because the relative risk was less than unity. I will issue a general table as soon as its ready, so that we can see that such an effective management strategy could be implemented. Right now, its full efforts after all the horses have bolted(See BBC news today).
And two major quakes preceded this in February 2008:These are in the longitude band 80-100.
The 12th May 2008 major earthquake joined to the 20th February Peak magnitude earthquake location passes through Bogale, the worst hit swamp in Myanmar and the cyclone followed this route!
See this image of the path of the Nargis cyclone(Courtesy Google maps): This image roughly shows that the cyclone is passing along the earthquake trail- the heat-wind trail. The trail of the peak magnitude earthquakes is that spawned by the Indian dams.<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=116355068350205276966.00044c9c53b69771e3fca&ie=UTF8&ll=28.265682,92.021484&spn=18.980699,40.957031&z=5>
7th May 2008
The prediction for May 2008Lets hope that in May the earth goes into a low spin mode and mitigates the suffering of the people,by the people but for all! Otherwise:
The details are:
Table 11007 presents the expected latitude and longitude for each longitude band. The top 5 rankings are more probable than the bottom ranks.
On the 9th of April the peak magnitude earthquake, a major 7.3 MM quake occurred in the longitude band 160-180, 6th Rank in the table:
A major earthquake of magnitude 7.1MM to 7.7MM is expected to occur between the 13th to the 20th of April 2008 with the following expected rankings for the various longitude bands:
Rank 1 80-100 RSBU Mean 0.0417, latest rise 0.275 in units of SSM/Earthquake, Max/Mean=6.59.Rank 2 20-40 RSBU Mean 0.00124, latest rise 0.00774 in units of SSM/Earthquake, Max/Mean= 6.25.
Rank 3 120-140 RSBU Mean 0.00594, latest rise 0.02439, Max/Mean= 4.1
Rank 4 140-160 RSBU Mean 0.01634, latest rise 0.047, Max/Mean= 2.88
Rank 5 –180-160 RSBU Mean 0.0324, latest rise 0.0524, Max/Mean= 1.62.
(qd8208 Sh3! AD177AK185 Table 3408A).
The expected longitude and latitude within these expected longitude bands can be got from Table 11007 below.
A major earthquake of 7.2 MM magnitude occurred on 20th March 2008 at the China Tibet border:
The history from 1973 on wards in this longitude band has been:
The location is thus near the minimum for the recent locations which is in the neighbourhood of the current location.
This is the peak magnitude earthquake in this month so far. See Table 178 for the prediction:
“The peak magnitude earthquake (PMQ) is expected to occur between 12th to 18th March 2008 and the expected magnitude range is 7MM to 8.1 MM”.
11th March 2008
Low Spin Mode Prediction for March 2008.
High Spin Mode Prediction for March 2008.
If the earth goes into a high spin mode, allowing only large and great earthquakes to result, the expected peak magnitude range is 7.3MM to 8.2MM. The expected date: 12th to 18th as before.
1st March 2008
The peak magnitude quake for February 2008 occurred on 20th Feb 2008, and the predicted and actual parameters compare as described for 20th Feb 2008. See Table PA 78.
PREDICTION FOR MARCH 2008
The prediction for March 2008 is as given in Table 178: The peak magnitude earthquake (PMQ) is expected to occur between 12th to 18th March 2008 and the expected magnitude range is 7MM to 8.1 MM. The longitude band in which the PMQ is expected has occurrence probability ranks as shown in Tables 28208RSBU, 28208SBU and 28208QN for three criteria: Rate of Residual Stress Build Up, Total Residual Stress Build Up and Number of quakes in the stated period. According to these tables, the longitude band –80 to –60 has rank 2 for the first two tables and rank 1 for the third (Table 28208QN). The longitude band 100 to 120 has rank 1 in the first two tables and rank 8 in the third. From a consideration of the longitude bands for PMQs for the monsoon and dry seasons, for March 2008 longitude band 100-120 is the more likely location for the PMQ. It is expected to be in the vicinity of what occurred in the 2007 monsoon in September . The expectation for the other location –80 to –60 is also in the vicinity of what happened in November 2007 and is given in Table EL308:
20th February 2008
A major and shallow earthquake took place at Simuele, Indonesia today:
This is three days later than the prediction: 11th to 17th, Magnitude 6.8MM to 7.6MM(Table 178). Location: See Table 11007 below, column for longitude band 80 to 100: -0.94,94.12,7.5 MM. It is within the magnitude range and equal to the magnitude stated alongside the expected location(the second one among three locations in the Table). This is about 3.75 degrees away from the expected latitude and 1.8 to 1.9 degrees away from the expected longitude! In the stress evaluation Table 8208, as of 8th Feb 2008, calculated from 1st June 2007, the longitude band is ranked sixth.19th February 2008.
A strong shallow quake of 6.9 MM occurred on 14th February 2008 in Southern Greece as predicted.See Table 178 below. The details of the quake are:
As given in Table 11007 below, this location was predicted to be one of 5 locations for this longitude band 20 to 40 namely latitude 40.26, Longitude 27.05: Out by about 4 to 5 degrees for latitude and longitude. The location as on Feb 17th 2008 has a rank of 2: As on 17th February 2008, the ranking for peak magnitude quakes is as given in Table 170208B:
8th February 2008January 2008 was a month in which the earth went into a low spin mode. I will issue predictions for low spin mode also so the authorities can keep watch and take appropriate action.
Prediction for February 2008
The prediction for February 2008 is that a peak magnitude earthquake is expected to occur between 11th and 17th having a magnitude expected to be in the range 6.8 to 7.6 as given in Table 178.The longitude band in which it is expected has the following rankings based on rate of rise of stress build up at faults as shown in Table 8208:
When the Total Stress Build Up is considered for longitude band ranking, the following ranks result (Table 8208A):
The first five rankings for both criteria remain the same. The authorities may watch out regarding the changes after the fifth ranking for giving alert.For expected latitude for the expected longitude band see Table 11007 below.
2nd January 2008
On the 19th of December 2007 a shallow major earthquake of Magnitude 7.1 MM occurred in Alaska at 09:30:27 UTC at 51.36,-179.54 at a depth of 29 km.
Note that as given in Table 178 a major to a great earthquake was predicted between 15 -21
December 2007 with a magnitude range of 7.1 -8.3 MM. The predicted location was given in Table 11007 below. The nearest expected location was 52.88,-167.6.
Prediction of peak magnitude earthquake for January 2008
Table 178 predicts a major earthquake ranging in magnitude between 7.1 to 7.8 MM to occur between 10th to 16th January 2008. For the expected location see Table 11007. The ranking of the expected longitude band is shown in Table 2JAN2008:
The ranks are persisting for the first five positions! The concerned authorities may watch out for them given the uncanny accuracy of previous predictions, for purposes of vigil to save precious lives.
11th December 2007The PMQ for Nov 2007 occurred on 14th November 2007 and the prediction and the actuals are compared in the Table Nov2007:
On the 9th of December 2007 in the longitude band -180 to -160: -26.07, -177.51(near one of the expected locations: See Table 11007), a major quake of 7.8 MM magnitude occurred(South of Fiji Isles). On 11th December the latest ranking for further possible major to great quakes in December 2007 are given based on the rate of rise of residual stress in rocks: Table 111207:
It may be noticed that the South of Fiji Islands major quake of 9 Dec 07 in the longitude band -180 to -160 has moved up to the third rank from 24th November.
For earthquakes during November – December 2007 from 24th November, the ranking of earthquakes is as shown in the following Table 241107ranks:
For expected latitude for the expected longitude band see Table 11007 below.
4th October 2007
During October the Peak Magnitude Earthquake (PMQ) is expected to be in the range 7.2 to 7.9 MM and to occur between 11th to 17th (See Table 178 prepared at the begin of the present hydrological year June 2007 to May 2008). The ranking of the location is given in the table (ELPMQOCT111707) according to 3 criteria. The ranking according to the middle criterion: Rate of Rise of Residual Stress (in rocks) appears to be most in accord with the actual occurrences in the past 7 days. The parameters have been computed for the period June to 1 October 2007 as per USGS data base on 1st October 2007. The other two criteria are: 1. Sum of the Seismic Moments during the period for each longitude band as a percent of the maximum Seismic Moment for the band during the period and 2. The number of earthquakes during the period for each band. The ranking is on the basis of descending order for each criterion’s parameter. Note that the upper estimate for the PMQ has been revised to 7.9 from 7.8. See Table 11007 for details of expected locations: Rank and Latitude and Longitude.
16th August 2007-27th August 2007
As soon as the Peru 7.9 MM earthquake occurred on 15th August 2007(Universal Coordinated Time, U.T.C, 23:40:57)) I noticed that the Table R13807 as on 13th August 2007 had omitted the –80 to –60 longitude band because the risk at 7.7 MM magnitude was 0.846. I have revised Table R13807 to include the longitude band –80 to –60 for a magnitude of 7.755 which exceeds a risk level of unity. It seen that its ranking has been revised to No. 3! In the event, the Peru 16th August 07 quake had a magnitude of 7.9 MM raises it to the highest risk of 1.66, which it must since it occurred over all the others. Similar appears to be the fate of the Java, Sumatra quake of 7.5 MM on 8th August 2007. Suddenly applied bending stresses by rapidly rising water quanta behind Indian dams tip such faults over a risk level of unity and qualify to be included in the prediction table. The rainfall/reservoir inflow data on the present hydrological year (2007-8) was not available on line and hence I base my predictions on the average monthly rainfall pattern and compute the 95% confidence limits for the quake dates and magnitudes. The peculiar nature of the Indian Monsoon’s ferocity exhibits the same pattern in percent terms monthly year after year and so the past becomes a faithful reproduction of the future. This connection of the cause-Indian Dams to the Effect- Worldwide earthquakes enables the picture of magnitude and dates to be obtained a whole hydrological year in advance. The picture for the location of the earthquake follows a similar logic. The methodology is to follow for each expected longitude band the process followed for the Peru Peak Magnitude quake. Note for example how closely the Peru peak magnitude earthquake details(On 16807 revised to 8 MM: See also Figure PMQR for weekly progress) are obtained for the location (Table PMQ). Revised Table R13807 (Rev) appears below:
Figure 1 shows how the worldwide peak magnitude earthquakes significantly follow the India monsoon rainfall on account of the surge waves of water moments exerted by the rapidly rising water masses behind India Dams. See Table 1 for data.
Notice the biphasic response of the seismic moments of the earthquakes to the water moments. This is because the earth is in a resilient state and bounces back to health after a man-made disaster. This is similar to body repair mechanisms for living beings in response to internal contaminants. See for example:
http://www.geocities.com/rakumra/deathdealersnuclearpowerprogrammesoutsourcegulfstreamtokill.pdfOr http://deathdealersnukes.blogspot.com/
A similar picture of Moment magnitude and seismic moment responses occur weekly as shown for two successive weeks in August from 2007 down to 2002(Table WRSMR and Figure PMQR).
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Reference for Weekly Rainfall Data: India Meteorological Department Weather Reports for Weeks ending 15th August 2007 and 22 August 2007.
14th August 2007
The peak magnitude earthquake for July 2007 was a strong shallow (25 km deep)earthquake in Molucca Sea as shown below in Table 178.
Note that the 6.6 MM quake on 16th July which occurred at 11322.28 was revised to a 6.8 MM quake. The simultaneous occurrence of a direct earthquake hit at a nuclear plant and a meltdown of the core is a real possibility in Japan. It is high time the policy makers took note of the cause effect relation of dams to earthquakes. See http://earthquakescausedbydams.blogspot.com/
Predictions for the period 14/8/07 to End September 2007.
For details of the possible latitude and longitude ranges see Table EP below.2nd July 2007
The peak magnitude earthquake for June 2007 was a strong one and took place on two occasions:(date,Time,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth,Seismic Moment(x10^19.05 Nm) and earthquake Id:
The earth went into a low spin mode in June 2007. Note that June 13, when the first of 6.7 MM magnitude earthquakes occurred, was within the expected range for the date of occurrence but the location was not the expected one. The second one occurred about 7 days later than the upper limit for the expected date but the location was bang on target! There were six strong earthquakes in June 2007, three of which were in the expected longitude band 140-160 and all of them together produced a total Seismic Moment (absolute value) exceeding the value for a major earthquake.
The updated Table 178 is as below:
Prediction for July 2007
From Table EP below, the most probable earthquake location is in longitude band 140-160. See details for the latitude and longitude. On a scale of earthquake risk of 1 to 12, relative to the period 1673 to 31307, the other earthquake locations in order of decreasing relative risk are shown in the Table.
Table EP: Expected locations for the major earthquake expected between 16th to 22nd July 2007 of magnitude 7.3 to 7.7 MM:
Rank 1 Latitude -5.6 Longitude 151 or 41.8 and 145.8
Rank 2 -15.89, 167.3
Rank 3 -4.96,129.6 or 11.43, 125.2
The other locations with lesser risk as of date for a major quake are:
Latitude -59.9, Longitude -27.15; 35.9,52.99; 39.92,70.71; 13.36,-90.78; 44.54,-127 and
39.73,11.98.
13th June 2007The most likely location for the peak magnitude earthquake expected in June 2007 is in longitude band 140 to 160:
6th June 2007
There were a total of five low spin months (strong quakes) in 2006-07 but was made up by having three great earthquakes! Three or more great earthquakes in the same hydrological year had occurred before (Table TGE) but only from 1994 onwards:
27th May 2007
20th May 2007.
Prognosis for May 2007: An update.
As per earthquake search data of 19th May 2007, the data base study throws up the following revision for the Stress Build Up figures:
This is at variance with the USGS data-base in earthquake search for location 140 to 160 for 17th May 2007. Still the expected location for the peak magnitude quake for May 2007 remains in the longitude band 140 to 160. Note that the total stress change for the 140-160 band is the highest as well as the number of earthquakes. After three great earthquakes at 140-160 band(November 06, January 07 and April 07) , the stress change is still a maximum of 27.6 for %TS and the LN%SRR- the natural logarithm of the percent stress relief ratio is also a maximum.
The stress build up in the three longitude bands is depicted in the three figures below:
17th May 2007
Prognosis for May 07(update).
Follow up of Stress Build Up.
Comparison between 5th May 07 and 17th May 07 data.
Table EL17May07 shows the build up of stress in the three longitude bands one of which is expected to be the location band for the May 07 peak magnitude quake:
It is seen that from 5th May to 17th May, that is in 12 days the number of earthquakes in each of the three locations has doubled compared to that from April 1 to 5th May- 35 days. Thus earthquake activity has multiplied six-fold. The stress build up in the longitude band 140 to 160 is exponential as shown by the figure SBU140160May1707. This exponential build up of stress is not exhibited by the other two longitude bands. The most likely location for the peak magnitude earthquake is in the 140-160 longitude band.
16th May 20
Prognosis for May 2007: Revision.
The prognosis for May 07 has undergone a revision following a revision in the USGS data which has withdrawn the second great quake which was shown to have occurred on 1st April 2007 as per data for 5th May and 10th May. Accordingly, the peak magnitude quake having range 7.3 to 7.7 MM expected to occur in May between 14th to 21st may occur either in location having longitude band 140 to 160 or in location with longitude band 60 to 80 or –120 to -100. This is as per the stress analysis and probability tables for all longitude bands with the revision in the USGS data base visible from an earthquake search on 15th May 2007. However the ominous nature of the stress changes for longitude band 140-160 mentioned in the prognosis dated 8th May 2007 persists. Secondly, if the earthquake occurs in the longitude band 60-80, it would most probably be in the Himalayan region from past data. See Table ELPMQ1:
The stress changes are depicted in the figure SBUP5May07:
8th May 2007
Prognosis for May 2007
The stress changes in Figure CPCTS are with the second great quake of April1 2007 withdrawn.
In Tables EL and EL1 stress changes(with 2 great quakes on April 1 2007) are measured from 1st April 2007:
7th May 2007
Year Month Day HrMinSec Lat Long Mag Depth,km SM Quake ID
2007 4 1 203957.7 -8.47 157.04 8.1 18 141.254 24491
2007 4 1 211133.7 -7.31 155.74 8.2 10 199.526 24500
Note: The Seismic Moment, SM, is expressed as Value*10^19.05 N-m.
It is also interesting that the stress analysis determined with the 8.2 MM quake data missing, yields that the peak magnitude quake for the period 13th April 2007 to 20th April 2007 to occur between 140 to 160 degrees East Longitude(Rank 1). The Peak magnitude quake was a strong quake and occurred on 16th April 2007 in the expected longitude band 140-160:
2007 4 16 132038.4 -57.95 147.64 6.4 10 0.398 25215
After two great quakes in April we can expect strong quakes to be the peak ones. However we may wait for some time for confirmation that two great quakes have in fact occurred in April 2007. The reason for this is that in November 2006 in the same longitude band but for Kuril Is two great quakes were shown within half an hour of each other and subsequently the second one was withdrawn from the data base:
2006 11 15 111416.7 46.56 153.26 8.3 30 281.84 2086
2006 11 15 114055.2 46.5 154.74 8.4 10 398.11 2095
13th April 2007
The probability ranks for expected location of the major quake of magnitude 7-7.7 MM expected between 13th to 20th April 2007 as on 11th April 2007 are shown in Table PR11407: 4 out of the first five ranks are in both the types of rankings: one based on total stress per quake and the other based on total stress.The most probable location for the major quake is expected to be among the first five ranks: Longitude bands: -180 to -160,100 to 120,40 to 60, 120 to 140, 140 to 160 and -120 to -100. The calculations are from values between 25th of March and 11th April generally. We also see differences between 2nd April 07 data and 11th April data.
9th April 2007
A great earthquake occurred in Solomon Islands on 1st April 2007:
8.1 MM 2007/04/01 20:39:56 -8.48 156.98 10 SOLOMON ISLANDS.
The table below shows the bands of longitude in which major quakes are expected to occur between the 13th to the 20th of April 2007 as per data on 2nd April 2007.
On the basis of the stress build up shown in the above table and the clubbing of the rankings for the bands 140 to 160 and 160 to 180, it is logical to expect the Solomon Isles quake as imminent after the Vanuatu quake.
25 March 2007
A major earthquake occurred in Vanuatu on 25th March 2007:
7.2 MM 2007/03/25 00:40:03 -20.597 169.413 VANUATU
See Tables below:
From the above Tables SRPUTS and TSBU, we see that the longitude band of the Vanuatu quake, 160-180 has moved to the highest probability ranking from 11th March 2007 to 25th March 2007. From Table 167, we see that the expected magnitude range was 7-8 MM and the expected date of occurrence, between the 12th to the 18th. So it has occurred a week later but the magnitude is in the expected range. I shall wait till March end to confirm that this is indeed the peak for the month.
12 March 2007
14 February 2007.
A mix of rankings based on the criteria discussed below results in the following rankings in Table RP for the most probable location for the earthquake of peak magnitude for February 2007:
So the first four rankings include the following longitude bands: -60 to –40, 60 to 80, 40 to 60, -80 to –60,100 to 120, -40 to –20 and –140 to–120. The fifth rank would be 0 to 20.
12 February 2007
A strong to a major earthquake was predicted by me to occur between 10th to 16th February 2007 ranging in magnitude between 6.8 MM to 7.6 MM. The rank for probability for the most likely location beginning with the highest is given in Table PSC according to three different criteria: Change in stress and stress release ratio per unit of those as on 13th January 2007, change per quake and change per day. The most probable locations are the longitude bands 60-80,-140 to -120 and perhaps the rest of the locations under each criteria for the first five ranks.
14January 2007
A great earthquake of 8.2 MM struck Kuril Is on 13th January 2007(the previous great quake was on 15th November, of 8.3 MM magnitude in the same area). Referring to Table 167 of my predictions, a major earthquake in the range 7 to 7.7 MM was predicted to occur between 10th to 16th of January 2007. I am out for the location by one longitude band from the band 120 to 140 namely 140 to 160! The actual magnitude 8.2 MM is the average for the high limit magnitude 8.7 predicted for December 2006 and that for January 2007,7.7 MM.I give below Table EPTS of stress build up studies for the 18 longitude bands conducted with the help of USGS data for 13th January 2007 under earthquake search:
The Stress Build Up correlates extremely significantly with the change in the natural logarithm of the % Stress Relief Ratio as shown in the Table SBUS0607 and Figure SRRTS0607:
From Table SBUS0607 we see that the maximum Stress Build Up has occurred in the longitude band 140-160 and thus we had the great earthquake in this longitude band, East of Kuril Isles.
The prediction and the actual.
The status for the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007 is as shown below in Table MGQ0607:
Considering the magnitude of the project, the success of the prediction method shows that it is worth watching out by the governing agencies so that it mitigates suffering on a vast scale. Connecting the effect with the cause and the cause with the effect has proved fruitful.
9th January 2007
Table SE predicts the probable location for the 7 to 7.7 MM quake predicted to occur between the 10th and 16th of January 2007:
See Table 167 below in the body of this compendium( or see header table 167 here !) for the predictions made for the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007, in particular for January 2007.
26th December 2006:
The location given the 9th rank as of data on 19th December rapidly moved to the first position on 26th December and a 7.1 MM major quake occurred in Taiwan disrupting communications by damaging a series of undersea cables. It was immeiately followed by a 6.9 MM quake there:
2006/12/26 12:34:14 22.00N 120.50E 10 6.9MM TAIWAN
2006/12/26 12:26:21 21.82N 120.53E 10 7.1MM TAIWAN REGION
23 December 2006
The latest stress analysis(as of 19th December 2006) has seen the addition of two longitude bands into the stress build up list. The following is the latest ranking for the probability of major and great quakes for December 2006:
Rank Londitude Band
1. -160 to -140.
2. 160-180
3. -140 to -120
4. -180 to -160
5. -100 to -80
6. -20 to 0
7. -120 to -100
8. -80 to -60
9. 120-140
10. 80 to 100.
11 December 2006.
The following Table shows the probable order of preference for the location of the major or great quake in December 2006 expected between 14th to the 21st:
2nd December 2006
The USGS data base for 1 or 2 December 2006 showed that the September 30 7.1MM major quake has been revised downward to 6.0MM and the 8.4 MM November 15 great quake which showed up 26 minutes after the 8.3 MM great quake in the November 26 data base has been removed. Thus the original September month data now again shows that it is a low spin month. The November great quake of 8.3 MM corresponds now to a stress relief ratio of 19.5 percent, still close to 19.743 percent- the theoretical figure(See also the URL:
http://earthquakecausedbydams.blogspot.com/).
December 2006 is expected to throw up a major to a great quake ranging from 7.1 to 8.7 MM and is slated to occur between 14th to 21st December 2006. The most probable location can be gleaned from the rankings: Probably Alaska, Hawaii or the rest of the Americas. But the Iran Region is also there as well as the Himalayan Region(Table N16R).
30 November 2006.
The data base for 26th November 2006(USGS) showed one more great earthquake(8.4 MM) some 26 minutes after the first great quake(8.3 MM) at almost the same location:
Data in the order: Quake No. from 1 Jan 2006(for Longitude Band 140 to 160),Year,Month,Day,UTC,Lat,Long,Moment Magnitude MM,Depth km,Seismic Moment Magnitude(Value multiply by 10E19.05 for N-m).
2086 20061115 111416.7 46.56 153.26 8.3 30 281.8383
2095 20061115 114055.2 46.5 154.74 8.4 10 398.1072
Following my method of assessing the stress build up using the time between earthquakes(TBQ) in the longitude band 140 to 160, I find that the stress relief ratio to be 20 percent( See http://www.geocities.com/rakumra/earthquakescausedbydams.pdf ), pointing to the validity of the data which arrived late on the second great earthquake in Kuril Isles. With this there has been a cluster of large and great quakes in Kuril Isles: September 30: 7.1(See TableMGQ0607 below), and great quakes in November(on the 15th). Looking at the history of very recent earthquakes, this is not unusual for November.
There may be a repeat of the sequence of three great earthquakes of hydrological year June 2004 to May 2005 during the current hydrological year but in the region of Kuril Islands/Alaska/North America. A great earthquake(Magnitude 8.7MM) is in the range of earthquakes predicted by me for December 2006.
20th November 2006
November 2006: Prediction and Actual
The predictions for November 2006 were realized bang on target: The expected date range was 15 to 22nd and it occurred on the 15th. The expected magnitude range was 7.2 to 8 MM and the actual magnitude was 8.3. One of the expected longitude bands-Rank 14: 140-160 was the location: Longitude 153.22, latitude 46.62, in one of the expected latitude ranges: 40-50: Kuril Isles. Almost the same location as for the major quake of September 2006. The Table below MGQ0607 shows the quakes so far in the hydrological year 2006-07:
The predictions for December 2006 are set forth in Table 167. December 14th to 21st 2006 expected dates with 7.1 to 8.7 MM as the expected magnitude range. So a great quake is also expected in December.The rankings as on 16th November together with the bands of longitude at which the earthquakes have already occurred in the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007 are shown in Table N16R(with two great earthquakes on 15th November 2006):
There are only minor differences in order from the rankings of October 7 2006(See Table MGQ0607 below).
November 6, 2006
October 2006, as of November 4, 2006 is a low-spin month. This is not surprising given that there is a one in three probability that two or more months in succession in any hydrological year from 1991 on would be in low-spin mode (Table LSF):
A major earthquake did take place on September 30th 2006
Now that in September 2006 a major quake did occur (on 30th), we count the number of times after exactly 2 consecutive major quake months a low-spin month occurred in two periods; 1, from 1973 to 1990; and 2, from 1991 to 2005. For the former period it is 19 while for the latter it is 6. This is again in inverse proportion to the mean cumulative reservoir capacities during the respective periods and is statistically extremely significant as well(Table LSF1). There was a two in 5 chance that October would be low-spin but a 3 in 5 chance that a major quake would occur in October. We may revise this result of low-spin for October later if new data arrives for the peak magnitude quake.
The low-spin did put out three 6.7 MM peak magnitude strong earthquakes: 1) off a big island of Hawaii on the 15th October, 2) in Papua New Guinea on the 17th and 3) off the coast of Southern Peru on the 20th , the date and the locations being as predicted (See Table 167, Table MGQ0607:Rank 9 and Table PMQAug06, row 11 for Hawaii, mean latitude and mean longitude)and details as follows for all the three:
Year Month Date Time Latitude Longitude MagnitudeDepth Long Band LatBand Rank
2006 10 15 170749.25 19.88 -155.93 6.7 38 -160 to–140 10-20 9
2006 10 17 12512.47 -5.88 150.99 6.7 32 140-160 -10-0 14
2006 10 20 104857.12 -13.44 -76.58 6.7 32 -80 to –60 -20to–10 18
Even though I had predicted a major quake these three quakes produced seismic moments which together exceeded the seismic moment of a 7 MM magnitude quake. Just as it happened for September 2006, it might be that we may revise October analysis if additional data is received later for the peak magnitude quake:
For September 2006, the data arrived a little late (on or before October 20th, but after October 7th) that, after all, September 2006 did have a major earthquake on 30th, magnitude 7.1MM, details as follows:
Year Month Date Time Latitude Longitude Magnitude Depth Long Band LatBand Rank
2006 9 30 175616.1 46.19 153.16 7.1 MM 10 140-160 40-50 14
The September 2006 major quake was indeed predicted (Table 167). The date band was given as 10th to 17th but it occurred on the 30th(an outlier) ! The 95% confidence upper limit of the time to earthquake peak between August to September is 33 days. So the upper limit of the mean date, 95% of the time, would be the 22nd. Now the location was predicted in the Table PMQSep06May07 to be the longitude slice 140-160, ranked 14, based on the number of quakes from Jan 2006 as on 7th September 2006. Table MGQ0607 predicted one of the probable latitudes to be FN 40-50 degrees (Kuril Islands, Japan) for this longitude slice. The predicted magnitude was between 7.2 to 7.8 MM.
So far the Table of earthquakes for hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007 has been filled up as follows:
Oct 28 2006:It appears that October is also headed for low-spin. This is not surprising given that there is a one in three probability that two or more months in succession in any hydrological year from 1991 on would be in low-spin mode(Table LSF):
The low-spin did put out a strong earthquake off a big island of Hawaii on the 15th October, the date and the location being as predicted (See Table 167, Table MGQ0607:Rank 9 and Table PMQAug06, row 11 for Hawaii, mean latitude and mean longitude)and details as follows:
Year 2006 Month October Date 15 Time 170748.2 Latitude 19.8 Longitude –156.5, Magnitude 6.7 Depth 29 km. However, we shall await the end of the month for confirmation and finalisation of the analysis of my prediction for October 2006.
The major to great earthquakes expected worldwide from October 2006 and beyond(till May 2007) are shown in the Table MGQ0607: For example if the earthquake in October were to occur in the longitude band Y 40 to 60 and latitude band FB 30 to 40, it would be the one ranked 4 in the table. As shown in Table 167, it is expected to be a major quake of magnitude 7.3 to 7.8 MM to occur between 11th to 17th.
So far this Table has been filled up as shown below:
The longitude bands which have been shown bold are the ones where major quakes occurred in the previous hydrological year.
Regarding the predictions for the last hydrological year June 2005 to May 2006, they were correct for ten of the twelve months as shown in Table MGQ0506. In two months the earth went into low spin mode and hence only strong earthquakes took place. Thus whenever the earth was not in a low spin mode there were major or great quakes. Hence given this fact, the predictions for major and great quakes turned out to be one hundred percent correct for the dates and magnitudes.
The peak magnitude quake for September was a strong quake as the earth went into low-spin during the month (Date: 28th September 2006, Time: UTC: 62209.65, Latitude –16.61, Longitude –172.02, Magnitude 6.9 MM, Depth 28 km, the Samoa Isles Region). The prognosis for October 2006 onwards for the location will remain the same as that given for September 2006 and beyond for major to great quakes. The major and great quakes are however the preferred choice for prediction because of the strength of association of Indian dams and major and great quakes in the world: The monthly percent number of major and great quakes correlates extremely significantly with the monthly percent change in water moment (Figure MGQWM): Only about 2 percent of the variations remain unexplained by this correlation:
The Low Spin Mode- An Investigation
Summary: The low-spin mode in which the monthly peak magnitude earthquake occurs with a magnitude at most of a strong quake (6 - 6.9 MM) has a mean period of 2.4 months (population standard deviation 3.22)(95% confidence interval for the mean: 1.74 to 3.07 months) as determined for a 33 year data base(USGS) from January 1973 to June 2006. Its occurrence is determined by the waves of force and the water moment exerted by the Indian dams on the faults worldwide: Extremely significant correlation exists between the mean cumulative reservoir capacity and the mean time between the low-spin events: Between June 87 and Sep 2006, 93 percent of the variations in the mean time is explained by this correlation(r= 0.964, p = 2.57E-30,n=52). There was a slightly less than one in two chance that September 2006 would be a low-spin month. However because of an 18/33 chance of a major quake, the September 2006 prediction was for a major quake (Table 167). In the end, the peak magnitude quake for September occurred in the Samoa Islands Region.
The Study.
The regularity with which the earth goes into low spin mode is brought out in the following Table (Table Low-spin):
The monthly low-spin numbers from June 1973- May 74 to June 2005- May 06 correlate statistically extremely significantly with the corresponding monthly change in water moment caused by the waters behind Indian dams as brought out in Figure LOSPINS:
There is extremely significant correlation between mean cumulative storage capacity and mean time between low-spin events as shown by Figure MTBLS:
The 7th September Table:
The data as of September 7 shows that for September peak magnitude quake longitude band 3-40 to 60- has the highest rank, followed by –20 to 0. Thereafter the order of expectation is ominously longitude bands –140 to –120 to –100 to –80(the American Continents), then 60 to 80 which is the region where in October 2005 a quake of 7.6 MM struck Kashmir and then back again to –160 to –140- the region of Alaska and Hawaii. Note that the band 40-60 of Turkey and Iran has taken the highest rank, assuming that Item No. 16, longitude band –60 to -40 has not yet reached critical stress. Note that rows in the column “Rank” indicate the order in which the peak magnitude quakes are expected to occur based on the number of quakes. Thus row 1 in column “ Rank” is 1 corresponding to item 16, longitude band –60 to –40 with least number of quakes, 60 given in the next two columns titled Order of PMQ and Q for Order of PMQ respectively, and thus assumed to occur first (assuming it has reached critical stress) during September 06 to May 07. Item no. 17 is ranked 2 listed in “Rank” in row 2 and has already occurred on 20th August 2006.
The spike in the time between the quakes which signifies an imminent major to a great quake correlates logarithmically inversely with the number of earthquakes (See Figure LnSpkTBQ). Thus ranking of a quake region inversely as the number of quakes during a given period indicates the order in which quakes may indeed occur, assuming that the magnitude of the spike in a longitude band is a measure of its imminence in a set of longitude band slices.
The Actuals in August 2006 as on the 24th
A major earthquake occurred at 034117 UTC on the 20th as predicted. It had a magnitude of 7.1 MM and its hypocenter was
-61.011, -34.375, 10 km in Scotia Sea. See Table PMQAug06, item 18 below:
Possible dates of occurrence of major and great earthquakes worldwide.
A prognosis for the remaining part of the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007.
Date of Report: 24th August 2006.
The peak magnitude quake in August 2006 occurred on the 20th in the 18th longitude band: -40.49 to –20.5 at latitude –61 instead of the mean location for the band of –12.21, a standard deviation away. The longitude was –34.37 instead of the mean of –28.9, less than two standard deviations away. Counting the number of earthquakes in each longitude band from 1st June 2006, and entering them in the column “No. of Q’s”( as on 5th August 06), gives us a method of estimating using other data like the spike TBQ(Time between Quakes), the date of occurrence of the next major to great quake. The last column in the Table PMQAug06 indicates the order in which the peak magnitude quakes (PMQs) is predicted in the longitude bands whose serial numbers are given in the first column. In Table PMQAug06, the longitude band –40.49 to –20.5 occurs after the longitude band –20.49 to –0.5 because the predicted major quake has already occurred in the former band. This will facilitate the ranking of quakes to come in the present hydrological year.
Rank 1: By this prediction, the next PMQ would be in the longitude band No. 16, that is, -60.49 to –40.5, assuming that, even though it failed to occur till 20th August (having the least number of quakes), it would perhaps, in the remaining part of August or in September. It is possible that the critical stress after which a major or great quake occurs, is usually reached after the total number of quakes from the begin of a study period has exceeded about 200. See for example Table GMW, which exhibits data for some great and major earthquakes. This region includes Greenland, Central and Eastern South America, Falkland Isles, Scotia Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula. During the period of study, 1st June 06 to August 06 as on 5th august 06, the frequency chart shows earthquakes have occurred from Scotia Sea region, to Falkland Isles right up to Greenland. It is interesting to observe that in the region of latitude –9 to 0 in this longitude band, no quakes have occurred during the study period. This is the Amazon region.
Rank 2: Next in line would be what in the USA would perhaps be a highly studied area: Item 12 or longitude band –139.49 to –119.5 in which would fall the St. Andreas fault. The frequency chart shows prevalence of quakes right from –56 latitude to 76 latitude, again for the particular period under study(See discussion under Rank 1). The wide distribution of quakes in the various latitude ranges also holds for other ranks.
Rank 3: Then would be item 3 or longitude band 40 to 60, which includes the Rift Valley, Iran, Turkey and Armenia (Yeravan, where the nuclear plants are also situated).
Rank 4: The next: Item 17: Longitude band –20.49 to –0.5 in which would fall Morocco, Algeria, Spain, the UK including London and Iceland.
Rank 5: The next, -119.49 to –100.5 (Item 13) includes Los Angeles, and Mexico.
Rank 6: –100 to –80 which is item 14 and includes El Salvador, Mexico and the Great New Madrid Earthquakes Region.
Rank 7: Then, 7th ranked is the longitude band of the Himalayan Region, item 4, 60 to 80 which includes Pakistan (POK apart from other areas like Quetta in Pakistan), significantly more than the left half of India including the whole of South India (the region of nuclear plants), Afghanistan, and the Central Asian Republics, and the Chagos Archipelago.
Rank 8: –160 to –140: it is item 11 which includes Alaska, Honolulu and Hawaii and the French Polynesia.
Rank 9: would be item 6, longitude band 100 to 120, which includes Eastern Russia, Eastern China and Indonesia, including Sumatra and Java.
Rank 10: in order of occurrence is the longitude band 1(0 to 20) which includes Italy (Messina also included, where in 1908 a 7.0 MM major quake killed 110000 people), Albania, France, Algeria (including El Asnam where in 1980, 2590 people were killed by a 7.1 MM major quake)) and Libya.
Rank 11: the longitude band 80 to 100(Item 5) is the Indian ocean, the eastern half of India, West China and the Himalayan Region including the Sagaing fault and the Andaman and Nicobar basin where the Great 9.3 MM quake occurred on 26th December 2004 and created a huge tsunami, killing 300000 people.
Rank 12: Item 9, longitude band 160 to 180, which includes the Kamchatka Peninsula , Santa Cruz Isles, Vanuatu, Fiji and New Zealand.
Rank 13: Next: Item 8: Longitude band 140 to 160 is ranked 13 and includes North & North Central Japan(where a number of nuclear plants are) and also the Kuril Isles, and the Western Kamchatka Peninsula.
Rank 14: The 14th in line is item 7: longitude band 120 to 140 and includes East Russia, East China,Taiwan, the Philippines, West Japan including Ryukyu Islands, East Indonesia and Central part of Australia.
Rank 15: Next, rank 15, item 10, -180 to –160 includes the Kermadec Islands, the Tonga Kingdom and Rat Isles and Aleutian Isles and West Alaska.
Rank 16: is item 2, 20 to 40, includes Turkey and the Rift Valley.
Rank 17: Item 15, longitude band –80 to –60 includes the West Coast of South America, the Amazon Basin, Central America and Eastern part of North America.
These would occur mostly serially in the next 9 to 21 months. We may allow for some months in which the earth will be in a low spin mode. The question is: Which are the next low spin mode months?
The rankings for the order of occurrence of the earthquakes of peak magnitude have been tested and found to be highly significant, using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient for 20th August 2006 and 31st May 2006: R=0.67,degrees of freedom 14, p=0.0047: See Table R:
This picture may need revision as the hydrological year(s) progress(es) and more data collects.
It is sobering indeed that so many parts of the world- indeed no part excluded – have become so highly stressed that major to great earthquakes are predicted for these longitude slices. It is reasonable to suppose that there is one great cause for all these to be simultaneously affected. That is where my research on Indian Dams causing worldwide earthquakes fits in to the picture. The URL is
http://earthquakescausedbydams.blogspot.com
As pointed out in the above URL and confirmed once again by the frequencies of the various latitude ranges for all the longitude bands, the water force and moment exerted by the dam waters at the center of gravity of all the water masses of Indian dams are responsible for the surges waves of earthquakes taking place in each hydrological year. The double hump for the frequency peak for latitude ranges for all longitude slices brings out once again this chaotic cause- effect relation. See Figure FAL:
This assessment would not be complete without an examination of the frequency of quakes for all longitude ranges for all longitude bands. See Figure LoAllflong06:
It is seen that the number of earthquakes during the study period is a minimum around the longitude of the center of gravity of the water masses behind Indian dams. The maxima of the frequency occur away from this longitude. In order to generate adequate water moment the faults offering resistance to the bending moment exerted by the changing water masses should be away from this longitude. Note that the mean of the longitudes of all quakes is about 12 degrees, far away from the center of gravity, see URL on earthquakes caused by dams, reference given above.
The Prediction for August 2006
The table PPQAug06 below shows the expected locations for the major quake(s) in August 2006, assuming that the earth is not in a low spin mode during the month. Data for the period 1973 to 2006 shows a double hump for the location for many regions. See for example I have stated two expected locations for the same longitude band, -159.49 to –139.5, items 11 and 12.
The low spin mode refers to only strong quakes for the peak magnitude quakes during the month. I expect that the concerned authorities will be on the alert and be ready to guide the people to safety in advance of the occurrence. The discussion on the double humps for the other expected locations will be given soon.
Stress build up trends reveal that major to great earthquakes are due in the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007. The likely areas are in the El Salvador region defined by the longitude range –87 to -107 and the Himalayan region defined by the 73 degrees longitude in a band of 65 to 85 including Kashmir, Tehri, Chamoli and in the South extending from Bhuj to Latur, Koyna and the Chagos Archipelago. Note that the longitude band for the El Salvador Region also is the band for the Great New Madrid Earthquakes of the 19th Century(Table GNME). The other expected locations in the table for August 06 are also candidates for the peak magnitude quake in the remaining months of the hydrological year.
Analysis of Stress Build Up in the Year 2006
Compare the stress build up in the El Salvador Region during the run up to the Peak Magnitude Quake(PMQ)-the major quake of 13th January 2001- with this year’s run up till 6th June 2006 from 1st Jan 2006: The stress build up is measured by the time between successive quakes(TBQ): The TBQ is measured by the number of worldwide quakes other than those in the particular longitude band under study. See the figures below(Figures ELS2001: Time between Quakes(TBQ) and Mean Time between Quakes(MTBQ),Figures ES and ESM for 2006):
Striking similarities between the two sets of stress diagrams
The 2006 stress level is at a higher level at the commencement of the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007- 30 percent more compared to the same time during the hydrological year June 2000 to May 2001. Comparing the stress build up leading to the 7.8 MM major El Salvador quake on 13th June 2001 with the stress build up till 6th June 2006 from 1st Jan 2006, I expect that a major to a great quake is likely during the present hydrological cycle in the El Salvador Region.
Stress build up in the Longitude Range 60 to 85 during June 2006 to May 2007.
A similar analysis for the mean longitude 73 degrees in a band range of 60 to 85 shows that a major to a great quake is likely in this range during the present hydrological cycle. See stress diagrams below: Figure 8:Major Earthquake of 7.8 MM in POK on 8th Oct 2005, Figure POKM for MTBF for 2005 quake, Figure HIMA and Figure Himam for 2006:
It is revealing to see how the stress diagrams above relate to the run up to the Bhuj quake of 26th Jan 2001(Figures Bhuj and BhujAB):
The above diagrams bring out the differences in stress build up between differing longitude bands. The Bhuj quake is situated in the same longitude band as that of the 8th October POK quake illustrated above and may provide an indication of the degree of state of stress before a major to a great earthquake is due. However note that a lower number for the Great Andaman Basin quake of 26th December 2004 holds for the 9.3 MM quake. The stress levels are to be scaled in the various longitude bands to extract information in this manner of the stress level in the rock. However the Time Between Quakes(TBQ)(Figure 1: 26th December 2004) for the Andaman 9.3 MM quake also reveals a common characteristic of the run up to the peak magnitude quake:
The common characteristic is that following the Time Between Quakes (TBQ) on a real time basis yields a timely warning of an impending major or a great quake. See Table GMW : SpikeTBQ is the spike in the TBQ that occurs before the impending Peak Magnitude Quake(PMQ)- Major or Great- occurs. After the spike, the PMQ occurs days after : For the Great Andaman Basin Quake of 26th December 2004, the PMQ of 9.3 MM magnitude occurred 7 days after the SpikeTBQ; for the Nicobar Isles earthquake of 7.5 MM, it was 2days after; for the Simuele earthquake of 28th March 2005- 3 days; for the Bhuj earthquake- 5 days, for the POK quake- 6 days, for the Rift Valley (Mozambique) denoted by RVM –8 days and for the El Salvador quake of 7.8 MM on the 13th of January 2001- 14 days.
The Nature of the Forces and Bending Moments applied on faults by the Dams
The dams are preparing the ground shaking work along all latitudes for any given band of longitudes on account of their propensity to apply their effects at any location offering resistance to the bending moments. Thus see how the dams are causing earthquakes at many latitudes in the longitude range –107 to –87 in the El Salvador Region Figure ESE, Tables ELSFLat and ELSFLon, Figures ELSFLat and FLonES:
A similar picture presents for the run up to the peak magnitude quake in the Himalayan Region, for example in the longitude range 60 to 86 for the period 1st Jan 2006 to 6th June 2006 as shown in the two tables(Tables POKFLA and POKFLO) and 3 diagrams(Figures POKFLa and POKLO and POKE):
Perhaps the best picture is presented by the Great Andaman Quake of 26th Dec 2004 of the ground shaking work done by the Indian dams prior to its occurrence with a magnitude of 9. 3 MM:
Figure GABQE shows how the earthquakes in the longitude range 86 to 106 corresponding to the region of the great quake are significantly distributed over a wide band in the latitude range –90 to 90, compared to the 60 to 86 longitude band.
The frequency distribution of the latitude and the longitude of the quakes in the above diagram are given in the two frequency charts Figures ANGreatLatFreq and GANQ26thDecember2004:
The two tables, ANLF and ANLOF for the frequencies of the epicenters are revealing:
In the 60 to 106 band of longitude, the Himalayas in their territory, seem to prevent frequent earthquake occurrence beyond about 40 degrees latitude. In the 60 to 86 longitude band, the quakes are pronounced in a very narrow latitude range of 34 to 38 degrees latitude and a very narrow longitude band of 70 to 74. In the 86 to 106 longitude band the number of earthquakes surges to a peak after passing the Himalayan Range(from 93 degrees longitude) and the peak is maintained till 97 degrees longitude.
Indian dams are relentlessly applying forces and bending moments on the Himalayan fault as on others like the Sagaing fault east of the Himalayan range. This is evident from the way the resistance offered by the fault as response to the water moments is causing the faults to be stressed up(and causing earthquakes) as shown above. A snapshot of the run up to the great Andaman Basin 9.3 MM earthquake of 26th December shows the frenetic dam activity in the Himalayan Ranges (Figure GANBELR):
An alternative explanation for the 1000 km long displacement after the Great Andaman Basin Earthquake of 26th December 2004
It appears from the observations above and from those for the longitude ranges –60 to –86, 108 to 128, 128 to 148 and 137 to 157 that the regions are all being progressively simultaneously stressed up by the dams relentlessly as of 6th June 2006. It is up and up all the way. This means that the sudden zip effect after the 26th Dec 2004 great earthquake for 1000 km of the fault line explained as a consequence of plate tectonics for the 12.9 meter displacement (See December 2004 commentary below) may be supplanted by the explanation of the surge waves of actions on the faults by the dams work prior to the great Andaman Basin quake offered by me above in the light of the evidence presented here. It is the persistent surge wave of forces and bending moments applied all round the center of gravity of the water masses on the Indian subcontinent by the waters behind the dams that stressed up the fault lines, in particular in the longitude band 86 to 106, resulting in the 9.3 MM quake and the 1000 km displacement in this longitude range.
With this background I now proceed to evaluate the date and magnitude of monthly peak magnitude quakes for the hydrological year June 2006 to May 2007: See Table 167(if this is blackened out visit the URL http://predictingwwquakes.rediffblogs.com and you will see it!) :
Prediction for June 2006
The prediction of the date of the peak magnitude earthquake for June 2006 is given in Table 9:
From the stress analysis developed above the most likely location for the peak magnitude earthquake for June 2006 is expected to be El Salvador region (Item 3 in Table 9).
June 2006: Actual peak magnitude earthquake
The earth went into a low spin mode in June 2006 and the peak magnitude earthquake(PMQ)-a strong earthquake of magnitude 6.4 - occurred on the 14th June 2006 at 41842.37 at 51.76,177.09 at a depth of 14 km. The region was Rat Islands, Alaska. I predicted the date for the peak magnitude quake(strong to great) to lie between 13 to 20 June. Since the expectation for the magnitude including the strong quakes was a major one, the date was taken to correspond to a major to a great quake. The pure low spin expected date was 17th and the PMQ was 6.7 MM (Moment magnitude). Whether the earth goes into a low spin or a high spin mode depends on her previous history which is a low and high spin mix of strong, major and great quakes.
The expected date for June 2006 in the table based on return period for peak magnitude quake was already “overdue”(Item 13 in Table 9).
Prediction for July
The expected date range for July 2006 from Table 167 is 16 to 22(for strong to great quakes) and the PMQ has the range 7.3 to 7.7 MM with 95% confidence.
A table (10) for prediction of date of occurrence for 28 regions is drawn as usual for July 2006:
Actuals for July 2006
On the 17th of July 2006, a major 7.7 MM magnitude quake struck in the Region 11 in Table 10. Details in Table 167 modified as of 17th July 2006. That the predictions are coming true is a grim reminder for the officialdom the world over to take notice and act. If only they had followed this method in real time, they could have alerted the people of the region days in advance and the toll of 300-350 dead and lakhs displaced, as of 18th July could have definitely been averted.
The prediction for July based on return periods shows that the PMQ is expected in any of 23 out of 28 locations studied between 16th to 22nd with 95% confidence. The most likely in July however, are El Salvador and the Himalayan regions as discussed before in the section on stress evaluation. But actually again the Indonesian Ring of Fire Region : Longitude band 86 to 108 was struck by a major 7.7 MM magnitude quake (it was overdue in this region in July 2006). Thus one should have followed in real time this region also for a spike in the TBQ and given advance warning days ahead by following my method of prediction. I had seen the steep gradient in which the stress was increasing in this region and also the spikes in the TBQ and this area should also have been stated as a candidate of choice for July 2006. So from here on I shall monitor in real time all the regions that I think are of interest( say 8 to 11 regions) from among the following: Longitude ranges: 1] 30-45;2] 45-60; 3] 60- 87; 4] 87-108; 5] 108-128; 6] 128-148; 7] 148-168; 8] 168-180; 9] –60 to –87; 10] –87to –107; 11] –107 to –127. Hopefully this type of monitoring should reduce the number of likely candidates to one or two, instead of 23 out of 28.
The development of the prediction method through the last hydrological year follows as a commentary as before. See the URL:
http://predictingquakes.rediffblogs.com
posted by Ramaswami Ashok Kumar at 8:13 PM
17 Comments:
On the 2th February 2007 a strong earthquake has occurred:Update time = Tue Feb 20 8:16:00 UTC 2007
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 6.9 2007/02/20 08:04:29 -1.050 126.880 33.0 KEPULAUAN SULA, INDONESIA.
If this is the maximum magnitude for February 2007, then my prediction for the magnitude to be in the range 6.8 to 7.6 MM has held! The date is out - late by just 3 to 4 days! Prediction wad 10th to 16th Feb 2007: See top of article. What is significant is that the probability had the 18th rank! Do between the 14th when the prediction was made for the rank for the probability, the longitude band had risen till today to the first rank! The USGS site has consistently said that the system is busy for the earthquake search- try later since at least 18th February . I will contact their web team.
some typo errors in the above comment: Change wad to was. Change do to so.
Sorry.
The magnitude has been revised to 6.5MM. Still the prediction has held.
It was 20th Feb not 2nd Feb as stated above. And the quake magnitude has been further revised to 6.7 MM:
6.7 2007/02/20 08:04:27 -1.054 127.068 22.5 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
12 September 2007: USGS has announced a 7.9 MM earthquake in Southern Sumatra(latitude -4.5,longitude 101.4). I had predicted this on 16th August 2007. See top of this blog: Table R13807(Rev): On the basis of past data, because the rainfall on the Indian Subcontinent is causing it because of change in water moment caused by the surge waves of bending moments. the past is a faithful reproduction of the future! The authorities: take note.
The 12 Sept 2007 South Sumatra 7.9 MM quake has been revised to a great quake OF 8.2 MM! This has consistently happened to the predictions based on an average picture during the past one to two years because more India dams have been commissioned and the average picture from 1973 to 2008 has to be revised upwards . I had revised my estimate to 8MM when this announcement was beamed on worldwide television screens. MORE LATER FOR A GOOD PROGNOSIS OF THE LOCATION OF DAMAGING QUAKES!
Quite high in my ranking for the location of peak magnitude quake for October 2007 has been the longitude band 160-180 including latitude and longitude historical specifics. The 6.8MM strong quake in New Zealand of October 15, 2007 occurred in almost one of the predicted places given in the top table.
On the 24th of October 2007 at 210251 hrs UTC, a major earthquake of 7.1MM occurred at hypocenter:
-3.9,101.06, 30km deep(shallow): Southern Sumatra, Indonesia. This is as predicted. See tables at top of article. This longitude band was ranked the first in the middle criterion Table. Also historically the location is close to one expected! Eureka!
The 24th Oct 2007 7.1 MM quake was revised to a 6.8 MM quake. On 31 Oct 2007 a 7.2 MM (revised) quake occurred in Pagan Region, Northeren Mariana Isles at 18.92 145.5. Looking at the table of Rankings, this was predicted as a possible Oct 07 location for a major quake.
During November 2007, the prediction for the major to great quake between 15 to 21 November 07
proved correct:Rank 2: a shallow 7.7 MM quake occurred in Northern Chile:-22,-69,40km deep: 15000 rendered homeless and one or two dead. look at the closeness with which the location had been predicted. Look when the above Table of rankings was prepared: 1/10/07! See also Table 178 which was prepared at the begin of the 2007-8 hydrological year.Will the so called experts wake up?
For December 2007, as of 10th Dec 2007, on 9th December 2007,a major earthquake of 7.8 MM occurred at 7:28:21 hrs at -25.87,-177.5 at a depth of 149 km in the region South of Fiji Islands. Note that a major to great quake(7.1-8.3MM) is expected in December 2007 between 15th to 21st(See Table 178). Note that as per Table 11007,(-20.59,-175.6) is one of the neighbouring locations where the quake was expected. We shall wait and see what happens during the entire December month. The fact that the 9th Dec major quake was within the expected magnitude range and less than a week before the lower limit for the range of dates in December and happened near one of the expected locations is again pointing to the success of the prediction. Indian dams are a major if not the prime cause for the quake.On 241107, a major quake in this location was ranked 8th among the longitude bands.
In February so far two shallow earthquakes have occurred: One on 8th Feb 2008 at 93814 UTC located at 10.72,-41.89,9km deep in North Mid Atlantic Ridge,6.9 MM magnitude; the other on 14th Feb 2008 at 100923 located at 36.646,21.833,29 km deep in Southern Greece. The latter location was predicted to be at
40.27,27 in this article(one among four expected locations in the longitude band 20 to 40). The magnitude is in the expected range:6.8 to 7.6 MM. The date is also within the expected range: 11-17 Feb 2008. See Table 178 prepared in May 2007, this article.We wait till end Feb to update the article.
25th February 2008:A 7.3 MM magnitude shallow(35 km deep)earthquake occurred at Kepulauan Mentawai Region Indonesia: at 083636 UTC at -2.37(Latitude),100.021 (Longitude). Stress Build Up studies from June 1 2007 to the first week of February(See Table 8208, this article) showed this to be the top rank for the peak magnitude quake while the Simuele quake of 20th Feb 2008 was ranked sixth in the same Table.The location was near one of four of Table 11007: -4.68,102.9 ! Such certainty of location and mean magnitude(major to great) within a week of the prediction range of 11th to 17th February for this quake and the Simuele quake of 20th February points clearly to the use of this prediction model for policy and administration. This is all because the perisistent cause of the worldwide quakes is the Indian Dam.
On 12th May 2008, a 7.5 MM major earthquake struck South West China(Eastern Sichuan):
2008/05/12 at 062801 at 31.084,103.267 at a depth of 10 km.This was followed by a 6 MM strong earthquake in its neighbourhood 15 minutes later. The major quake occurred according to my prediction for May 2008. The expected mean location corresponding to this micro region is 39.57,118 with a mean magnitude of 8.0 MM. This is second ranked in the Table SL but including the swarm weightage it ranked first. See last column (SR/QR*Swarm Ratio) in the table.
On 13th September 2008, the storm Lowell and the hurricane IKE are both pointing at the Alaska region, indicating hot spots in the longitude band -140 to -120. This is a pointer to a strong or major earthquake there. Similarly, IKE is pointing towards California and there are a flurry of smaller quakes in that region indicating a hot spot and a possible strong to a major quake in that region. The outcome may be in the coming days. Sinlaku, the tropical cyclone is pointing towards the hot spot 33,105 in China- the Sichuan-Gansu border region, indicating a possible occurrence there of a strong to a major earthquake in the coming days.
13th September: For the Alaska region I said the hot spot is at -140 to -120 longitude band. Please correct it to -160 to -140 longitude band. The band -140 to -120 refers to the California hot spot.
As on 9th May the longitude band -180 to -160 had the maximum stress change compared to all the other 17 longitude bands. The longitude band adjacent to the -180 to -160 longitude band, namely -160 to -140 longitude band exhibited the least stress change. Thus the swarm of earthquakes in the -160 to -140 longitude band at Kodiac Island region is explained by the surges of stress gradient across the two bands,causing heating up of the Kodiac Island Region of the Pacific Ring of Fire resulting from the swarm of earthquakes there from enormous stress build up in the rocks. The resulting exponential stress changes may result in a major quake in the Kodiac Island Region shortly. This is due to the archimedean lever effect of the surges of water pressure changes of hundreds of kilometers per second suddenly appearing at the centers of gravity of water masses in heavily dammed regions due to simultaneous electrical load demand changes across longitude bands. This phenomenon is being repeatedly being observed, as this article shows.
15th July 2009,09:22:33 UTC,Location:Lat -45.721,Long 166.643,Depth 35 km(shallow),Off the West Coast of the South island New Zealand, a 7.8 MM earthquake struck. Nearest Historical Mean Location for the peak magnitude quake has this data(Table PMQHMM7308 in the original post): Lat -44.58, Long 168.99,Depth 28.75 km, Magnitude 7.5 MM, The Off South Island Location. The past becomes the future! As has happened time and again.
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